Vaccine Madness

You can't really make an informed decision on vaccines for COVID because the data we are presented is suspect. Fauci said no masks, then masks, then double masks, then no masks if vaccinated, then masks again even if vaccinated. We were told that all we had to do was "flatten the curve" and all would be well. Now we are told it is semi permanent. We were told that the vaccines would prevent COVID. We were told it would reduce symptoms. We were told that the vaccine would solve everything. We were told that we need a booster every 6 months. We were told that the vaccine is effective against the new variations of the virus. We were told it doesn't.

Can you blame anyone not believing anything we are told?

As for the current vaccine mandate: we were told that postal workers are exempt; we are told they aren't. Biden promised to push aside any governor that opposed the mandate. The mandate is clearly unconstitutional, and yes I am aware of the case in the 30's. A fine is different than the destruction of a person's livelihood. Biden is clueless, but I am sure his handlers know that it is unconstitutional. But imagine the rhetoric one year from now when it becomes clear that vaccination is not working: "If only we were allowed to mandate the vaccine all would be well." 

What would the usual suspects say if Trump was doing this? 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=yLHGTJjHXLo&feature=share

Permanent Changes

The virus outbreak will permanently change everything. While I support opening the economy back up sooner rather than later, this will not mean that people will open up. I will not.

The change will vary from person to person. While these changes for me will be until the end of the year, by that time habits are made and habits are difficult to change. Just as the Great Depression influenced several generations, this will as well. Here are my changes.

I go to church twice a month. I would go every week but the trip for the church of my choice is over an hour one way. I doubt I will go for the rest of the year, maybe not until next spring. My church has a fall convention, I have gone every year, with one exception when I did not feel conformable driving for health reasons, for almost 40 years. I will not go this year. For many people this will become a permanent habit.

I go to a restaurant 3 times a week. I have not been for two months, except for 2 drive ins. I will not go again until next spring. I expect that restaurants will open up June 1, later than everything else. Since many customers will not be there, I predict many restaurants will not open up. Locally three restaurants already closed before the crisis. One is already been converted to apartments. How many will never reopen? This will effect the economy, and has already resulted in crops being plowed under since those productss were designed for restaurants. On a personal note, I am a landlord for a restaurant.

We need to buy a couch, and a mattress. (The mattress is old, and humorously was probably used by JFK and Marilyn  Monroe.) I doubt we will buy them this year. I will probably buy a sauna for its health benefits, but that is it. A new car would also be a normal purchase right now, I have never had a car with 135,000 miles before. I will wait. Decisions like this will cascade through the economy.

We are considering moving back to San Diego. This would entail buying a house there and selling the one we live in now. Prices will drop substantially, but that effects me on both ends. I doubt I will buy a house this year. These plans may change permanently.

Retailers will be hit rather hard. While Amazon is not the cheapest, it is convinent and has a larger selection. Habits are hard to break. Since I am a retailer and rent to retailers, I may be hit hard. This will also greatly effect the economy. Retail workers buy things.

To a degree I think these changes are permanent. Things will not go back to normal.

The Death Rate May Not Be That High

Since we do not know the number of people who are infected, we do not know the death rate for those infected. It will drop as more people are tested and an antibody test is devolved to tell us how many have had it and recovered.

The flu spreads relatively slowly at 1 person infects 1.2 people every 5 days. The estimates I have seen for this new variant is 3. 1,3,9,27, and so on. This combined with a higher death rate than the flu is the reason this virus has been declared a pandemic. 

While it has been 40 years and we still do not have a vaccine for the aids virus, we are promised a vaccine any day now. It isn’t going to happen, not that soon anyway. We have our infection peaking and on the downturn by May first or earlier, and at that time the lockdown policy will have to be changed, and infection fronm the virus will reassert itself. Infection will probably drop down in the summer and then come back this fall. 

It is not looking good, but we will be like Gloria Gaynor.

The Numbers Don't Makes Sense (Corona Virus)

Fauci thinks that 100,000 to 200,000 will die from the virus. Sounds horrible. But according to the CDC 2,813,503 died last year. Here are the numbers:

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

So 3 million will die instead of 2.8 million. This is bad, but not the apocalypse.

Fauci also said that the death rate was similar to the flu. If so, that means 100 million to 200 million Americans will get it.

I support the shutdown, but it has to stop sooner rather than later. If efforts are being made to reduce the mask shortage and we can all have masks, then the shutdown can end.

Where Are The #$&@*/%-+ Tests

There is still a shortage of tests. In the hardest hit areas like LA and NY they only test if a positive test result will impact the treatment. The doctors just assume you have it and treat accordingly. What this means is that we have no idea how fast it is preading; we have no idea what the total infection rate is; we have no idea what the death rate is. This is true even where they test a lot like Korea. There is no antibody test, so we have no idea how many recovered patients there are. This will greatly effect the death rate because the current test only tests for active infection. 

I still think the death rate will be a little lower once all these factors are taken into account. Worryingly, the Korea death rate is rising and is now over 1%. 

There is a shortage of tests everywhere. There is currently no shortage of ICU rooms nor ventilators. This will change.