My 2023 Predictions

As usual every other prediction is a joke or fake.

1. 40% of Ukraine's electric grid has been destroyed. The destruction centers on substations which could, theoretically, be repaired quickly. No doubt Ukraine is constantly repairing as Russia constantly bombs. Mrs Zelensky in a BBC interview said that Ukrainians could go without electricity for three years. At the time I thought this was odd. But since there is a limited amount of spare parts stored for repair, and any additional repair equipment must be imported from Russia, this means that Ukraine might have to rebuild the electric system form the ground up. I doubt this could be done that quickly. No modern society can survive 3 years without electricity.

This leads to my first prediction. Unless the US intervenes Ukraine will no longer exist one year form now. At best it will be a powerless shadow of its former self.

2. US general Ben Hodges, former NATO commander, predicts the Ukraine will will the war this year. They have the big mo.

3. Oil is currently at $80 a barrel. I predict that it will hit 100 to $120 this year. The factors encouraging this is that sanctioned countries hold 40% of the world oil reserves and the Gulf Country's hold 40% and they control the marginal production.  In addition the ending of the covid restrictions in China will lead to more travel and economic growth.

4. Due to a recession Oil will drop $15 to $25 dollars a barrel. 

5. We are already in a recession and this will continue for a few years. Since inflation is under measured, we have been in one for over a year already. This was also masked by covid recovery stimulus.

6. There will be no recession in 2023

7. Inflation will continue in the 8 to 10% range even with rising oil prices as the recession reduces demand.

8. Experts tell us that Inflation will be 2.8% in 2023.

9. Biden will not be impeached. This is not to say he doesn't deserve it.  I can't think of a modern president that did not deserve it. Impeachment was always been political. What the crimes might have been is irrelevant. I doubt that with the slim majority the Republicans will have the votes.

10. Biden will be impeached.

In reality these predictions are on a sliding scale where each impacts the others in a feedback relationship.

I won't say which are mine and which are the fake ones. That way I can claim psychic powers no matter what happens like that old Twilight Zone episode.

Vaccine Madness

You can't really make an informed decision on vaccines for COVID because the data we are presented is suspect. Fauci said no masks, then masks, then double masks, then no masks if vaccinated, then masks again even if vaccinated. We were told that all we had to do was "flatten the curve" and all would be well. Now we are told it is semi permanent. We were told that the vaccines would prevent COVID. We were told it would reduce symptoms. We were told that the vaccine would solve everything. We were told that we need a booster every 6 months. We were told that the vaccine is effective against the new variations of the virus. We were told it doesn't.

Can you blame anyone not believing anything we are told?

As for the current vaccine mandate: we were told that postal workers are exempt; we are told they aren't. Biden promised to push aside any governor that opposed the mandate. The mandate is clearly unconstitutional, and yes I am aware of the case in the 30's. A fine is different than the destruction of a person's livelihood. Biden is clueless, but I am sure his handlers know that it is unconstitutional. But imagine the rhetoric one year from now when it becomes clear that vaccination is not working: "If only we were allowed to mandate the vaccine all would be well." 

What would the usual suspects say if Trump was doing this? 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=yLHGTJjHXLo&feature=share

There Will Be Blood

The metaphorical black eye that the worldwide military industrial complex has received in Afghanistan will lead to war. 

Expect more anti-Chinese propaganda. While I do not think the blood will be in the straits of Taiwan, there will be constant pressure in the area. Ships will provocatively sail between Taiwan and China.  More stories about concentration camps in China will surface. 

Expect more stories about N. Korea and an expanded nuclear program there.  But they have nuclear weapons, so I don't expect blood there. 

Expect more sanctions against Russia.  Ukraine, with the support of the West, just shut down all opposition media. The main opposition leader is under house arrest. The US equivalent would be to arrest Trump and shut down Fox News. But blood here is unlikely as the US does not want to lose all thier dinosaurs called aircraft carriers. 

That leaves Iran as no one likes them anyway. They have kept the agreement they made with the world. The US broke the agreement. 

it is always possible a new theatre will be selected. Africa immediately comes to mind.

So who knows where the crisis will appear. All this pressure will be placed against all these artificial foes. (We have always been at war with Eurasia.) Any of these hot spots could flare up. Whoever is in charge of the US, and it is not Biden, is incompetent. We have not seen such incompetence since the USSR in the 80's and 90's.

But there will be blood. The US needs a short victorious war. 

Make Up Your Mind

I have been seeing two different memes that contradict each other, sometimes by the same people. Make up your mind. 

The first is that the "good kids" on Tik Toc applied for tickets to the Trump rally in Tulsa and this meant less attendance. The second is that Trump is not popular since he can't fill an arena. Hmm. 

The way the world works is that most people will not read the articles but only see the headlines. This means that public opinion has been shifted to the desired outcome. This is why I think Trump will not be reelected. The low engagement portion of the 25% that have not made up their mind will only see the headlines about Trump and his various mistakes. Low engagement Trump people will get discouraged as he is doomed. Low engagement Anti-Trump voters will be encourage by the "good kids." 

These are the facts as I understand them. 200,000 people asked for tickets more than the seating capacity of the arena. This means that there was no assigned seating. This means that the "good kids" brigade had no effect on the rally. With the virus, it is naturally that many would not attend. There was a riot at at least one metal detector at an entrance, this made entry difficult. As one headline put it, 1000's were not able to enter the venue. 

The manipulation of the facts continues. 

A Corona Virus Problem No One Is Talking About

The most important thing that has to be done is to keep the supply chain running. Everything else in not important. This means that the quarantine will be lifted and people will go back to work in a few weeks, maybe sooner. 

Why?

Diesel. Without diesel our whole society collapses. From the ubiquitous UPS truck to the long haul trucker, all need diesel. The oil refineries can not only produce diesel. It must be a mix of different fuels. So to get diesel you must make gasoline. If no one is buying gas, then it has to be stored. Storage is limited. 

The trucks must roll.

At first I was ambivalent about the “stay at home” rules. Now I think these rules will have to be lifted soon. I would not have thought that Boris Johnson’s approach of benign neglect would be correct.  Yes, at the South Korea death rate 500,000 might die in the US if 100 million are infected, but that is better than 100 million dying if the trucks don’t roll. 

The trucks must roll.

Supposedly at 65, I am at risk. I actually got modestly anxious at Costco yesterday even though I was totally equipped for the outing. Instead of mass quarantine, we need self quarantine of those at risk with a way quickly developed to bring stables to those who should stay at home. This too will require trucks. 

The trucks must roll.