What Am I Doing For the Crisis?

The short answer is, there is not much anyone can do. We all do what we can.

I plan to avoid all crowds, except once a week for groceries. I will wear a mask and gloves. Everyone in the moderate risk category should do the same. As I am 65, that describes me. You are higher risk if you have a disease that combined with the virus might kill you. These diseases can be as common as high blood pressure, or even being obese. If you are over 80, even if you are in good health, you are also at high risk. If you live with someone at high risk, then you should treat yourself as if you have high risk. If you get it, they might. You may still have to buy food if you are in a higher risk, but maybe someone can buy it for you and leave it on your front porch. This sounded goofy to me as I typed it, but it makes sense.

I think that these efforts at "flattening the curve," reducing the number of cases to reduce the overload of the medical system, are good. They can not last without destroying society as I mentioned in yesterday's post.

Eat as good a diet as you can within the parameters of only going out to get food once a week. Fresh is good, if you can get it. Personally, I have one high carb day, three low carb days, and three moderate carb days. That is just what works for me, and I only have 12 more pounds to lose to get to my high school weight. But this can not continue. Carbs are the easiest to store, and they have a longer shelf life. This longer shelf life is a reason why I think they are not healthy. I will have to increase my carb consumption because that is what I have. Instead of one dinner a week with pasta or rice, I think I will go up to 4 dinners a week like that.

I keep track of what I eat using chronometer, so when I run out of calories, I will just have to stop eating. Since carbs make me hungry, I am not looking forward to this.

You might consider making soup and freezing it. We have been doing this for some time. Especially consider it if you are about to lose some vegetables due to spoilage. We are making soup that both my wife and I can eat, which unfortunately means it can't be spicy. Another family member is just going to have to eat canned chicken noodle soup, as they would never considering eating beans, a common ingredient in my soups. (For those of you who do low carb, the reason I have moderate carb days is a combination of beans and a daily fruit.)

In terms of exercise, the forced leisure might be a good time to start exercising, gradually. I started doing weight bearing exercise 4 months ago, cardio exercise two weeks ago and plan to continue. There are various you tube videos you can watch and often exercise along with in both categories.

What am i doing?

The best I can, like you.

A Corona Virus Problem No One Is Talking About

The most important thing that has to be done is to keep the supply chain running. Everything else in not important. This means that the quarantine will be lifted and people will go back to work in a few weeks, maybe sooner. 

Why?

Diesel. Without diesel our whole society collapses. From the ubiquitous UPS truck to the long haul trucker, all need diesel. The oil refineries can not only produce diesel. It must be a mix of different fuels. So to get diesel you must make gasoline. If no one is buying gas, then it has to be stored. Storage is limited. 

The trucks must roll.

At first I was ambivalent about the “stay at home” rules. Now I think these rules will have to be lifted soon. I would not have thought that Boris Johnson’s approach of benign neglect would be correct.  Yes, at the South Korea death rate 500,000 might die in the US if 100 million are infected, but that is better than 100 million dying if the trucks don’t roll. 

The trucks must roll.

Supposedly at 65, I am at risk. I actually got modestly anxious at Costco yesterday even though I was totally equipped for the outing. Instead of mass quarantine, we need self quarantine of those at risk with a way quickly developed to bring stables to those who should stay at home. This too will require trucks. 

The trucks must roll.

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 Go to 21 minutes if you want just the influenza part.

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Normally I suggest testing to determine your Vitamin D  level, but there is no time for that.

I Blame Trump

Well we have to blame someone. I think instead we need to look at him as a motivational speaker. Here is a recent tweet:

China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi.

This is the kind of thing the football coach might tell his players at halftime when they are behind. I guess Trump thinks that China is a part of Team USA. There are several major things wrong with this.

First, what China did to stamp it out was to arrest you if you tested positive and put you in prison. They called it a hospital. But it had bars on the windows. Your family home was then welded shut with your family inside. I doubt any US President is going to do this.

China discovered the virus and its potential deadliness last year. The response? It ordered the lab that isolated the virus to destroy all samples. Then if you talked about it you were punished. I do find it suspicious that a doctor that first warned the world was silenced, and then he died, supposedly from the virus. He was under 40, not exactly the expected outcome for someone his age in good health.

Then there is this from a China human rights website.

On January 26, China’s military online portal Xilu.com published an article, which claims that the coronavirus is “a biochemical weapon produced by the US to target China.”

“Imperialism has never stopped attacking, destroying, and annihilating China. But China is developing so rapidly that imperialism rips off its mask of hypocrisy and openly acts [against China],” the article claims, in an apparent attempt to shift citizens’ dissatisfaction with the government’s inability to deal with the crisis.

Alex Jones would be proud.

Lastly, China just expelled US Journalists.

What are they afraid of?

I am not one to blame everything on China, but we certainly should not be praising them.

Here is another motivational speaker that actually makes more sense than Trump:

Queen of Corona

Doom, Despair and Agony on me.

Yes, I am saying it is not going to be that bad. However, there is more risk from governmental action than there is from the virus for the average person.

First, this will dramatically increase the deficit. Eventually, the deficit will destroy the country. How soon, you ask? No one knows. I have been saying that it will not be this crisis but the next one, maybe even the one after-14 years or so. But I was not expecting the unexpected, the black swan. I doubt it, but this could be the big one:

What is a black swan?

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

The Corona virus seems to qualify.

What governmental action am I expecting?

There will be a mandatory quarantine and widespread shuttering of businesses in about a month. This will happen whether or not it is a good idea. Think about it from the government perspective. If the government does nothing, and there is a disaster, the government will be blamed. If the government has some sort of quarantine, and nothing happens, then the government will say, "See it worked!" If there is a crisis, and there was a government shutdown of businesses, then they will say, "See, it would have been even worse without the restrictions." The government could even be right about either of these outcomes. It might actually be the right thing to do.

While a better alternative is self quarantine, or social distancing as it is called:

Social distancing is a set of nonpharmaceutical infection control actions intended to stop or slow down the spread of a contagious disease. The objective of social distancing is to reduce the probability of contact between persons carrying an infection, and others who are not infected, so as to minimize disease transmission, morbidity and ultimately, mortality.^[1][2]

Social distancing is most effective when the infection can be transmitted via droplet contact (coughing or sneezing); direct physical contact, including sexual contact; indirect physical contact (e.g. by touching a contaminated surface such as a fomite); or airborne transmission (if the microorganism can survive in the air for long periods).^[3]

Social distancing may be less effective in cases where the infection is transmitted primarily via contaminated water or food or by vectors such as mosquitoes or other insects, and less frequently from person to person.^[4]

Drawbacks of social distancing can include loneliness, reduced productivity, and the loss of other benefits associated with human interaction.

One of the earliest references to social distancing dates to the seventh century BC in the Book of Leviticus, 13:46: "And the leper in whom the plague is...he shall dwell alone; [outside] the camp shall his habitation be."^[5]

Historically, leper colonies and lazarettos were established as a means of preventing the spread of leprosy and other contagious diseases through social distancing,^[6] until transmission was understood and effective treatments were invented.

As I am 65, I will be doing this more and more as the crisis expands. Everyone should. Do not have any doubt the virus will spread. My church canceled services for the next two weeks and I predict  this will be extended until the summer. I had already not gone for two weeks for this reason.

This is happening in Italy right now. No one is to leave their homes except to go to the pharmacy or the grocery store. Unless you are living in the forest, you already know that there are shortages in the supermarkets in the US. My hardware store has no masks that are effective for virus protection, and we can't order any. While buying more than you would need for the next week is prudent, do not be a jerk. Soon it will be forbidden to be a jerk. 

The shutdown is coming to a country near you.

While I do not expect the banks to close, it might be advisable, if you are able, to withdraw some cash from savings. Even going to the bank might not be a good idea at some point in the future.

Amazon is your friend.