The Death Rate May Not Be That High

Since we do not know the number of people who are infected, we do not know the death rate for those infected. It will drop as more people are tested and an antibody test is devolved to tell us how many have had it and recovered.

The flu spreads relatively slowly at 1 person infects 1.2 people every 5 days. The estimates I have seen for this new variant is 3. 1,3,9,27, and so on. This combined with a higher death rate than the flu is the reason this virus has been declared a pandemic. 

While it has been 40 years and we still do not have a vaccine for the aids virus, we are promised a vaccine any day now. It isn’t going to happen, not that soon anyway. We have our infection peaking and on the downturn by May first or earlier, and at that time the lockdown policy will have to be changed, and infection fronm the virus will reassert itself. Infection will probably drop down in the summer and then come back this fall. 

It is not looking good, but we will be like Gloria Gaynor.