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Sunday
Mar292020

Where Are The #$&@*/%-+ Tests

There is still a shortage of tests. In the hardest hit areas like LA and NY they only test if a positive test result will impact the treatment. The doctors just assume you have it and treat accordingly. What this means is that we have no idea how fast it is preading; we have no idea what the total infection rate is; we have no idea what the death rate is. This is true even where they test a lot like Korea. There is no antibody test, so we have no idea how many recovered patients there are. This will greatly effect the death rate because the current test only tests for active infection. 

I still think the death rate will be a little lower once all these factors are taken into account. Worryingly, the Korea death rate is rising and is now over 1%. 

There is a shortage of tests everywhere. There is currently no shortage of ICU rooms nor ventilators. This will change. 

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