Two Short Videos on the Israeli Palestinian Conflict

The first of these videos is from the Palestinian perspective. If you are surprised by the king of Jordan referred to as a Hashemite, understand that his family is not well liked by the Palestinians. 

The second video favors the Israeli's viewpoint. Note that the Hashemite dynasty originally supported the first proposed Palestinian solution. 

Note that one aspect of the establishment of Israel was the purchase of land from absentee landlords. The tenant farmers were then expelled from the land in 1948. 

Personally I think both of these perspectives are mostly accurate.

Iran on the Edge

While I feel that the coming war against Iran is too dangerous, there is a moderate chance that such an attack will achieve the goals of the US and Israel.

While the report referenced below may be a fake Iran intelligence report, it seems to fit in well with Iran’s problems. 

Excerpts of the report, posted this week on several Iranian websites, revealed that the government might not be able to pay the full salaries of its employees in the coming three months, which threatens the eruption of massive popular protests across the country. 

Large portions of the population might suffer from starvation, the report said, adding that riots are expected to take place in border cities where living conditions are rapidly deteriorating.

According to the report, Iran’s reserve of foreign currency might run out within the coming six month owing to extreme budget deficiency.

Other official reports have stated that Iranian factories are working on only half their capacity, and that a large number of them have declared bankruptcy.

The idea is that one hard push and Iran goes over the edge. It could happen. But just as easily it could unite the Iranian people. Probably the most difficult “action” for anyone is to do nothing when that is the best play. 

The risk is that oil prices will jump if Iran is attacked. I know what my target would be if I was Iran, not the Strait of Hormuz, but the Saudi oil fields. I would already have people in place. I doubt I am any smarter than Iran’s leaders. 

Let's Drop the Big One Now

Randy Newman has had an interesting career. He even had one hit, so he is a "one hit wonder." That song was Short People. 

The song I am sharing today is another song that deserved to be as big a hit as Short People—Political Science. 

What is disturbing about this song is that, based on the various posters I see in my facebook feed, many will not understand that this is a parody until I tell them. So no, Newman is not advocating nuclear war. 

Iran, the Darth Vader of our Time

I have been getting some views on the post I did on the arrival of the 3rd Aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. I realize now that I had oversimplified the situation. While I was quite accurate that Obama would be willing to agree to an Israeli strike if he was behind in the polls to shake things up, I failed to understand that the only way that Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, would attack before the election would be to hurt Obama—he supports Romney. So an equally plausible scenario is that he will attack if Romney is behind in the polls. It would be Romney’s October Surprise, not Obama’s. 

In any event, the drumbeats of war just keep getting louder as Israel prepares to attack. Even though Obama does not want an attack before the election, I doubt he would do anything to stop it. A war with Israel is not on his political plate. 

Yahoo News is even on script:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Iran was just six to seven months away from being able to build a nuclear bomb, adding urgency to his demand that President Barack Obama set a clear “red line” for Tehran in what could deepen the worst U.S.-Israeli rift in decades.

Iran will be attacked. The only question is when. 

I doubt that Iran is any more evil than other countries, who could, on short notice, have nuclear weapons built. These countries include Germany, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and no doubt other countries. Israel has 250 nuclear weapons. It seems to me that Israel is more likely to use their weapons than Iran is. Israel could easily turn the entire Arab Middle East into a parking lot. 2 or 3 bombs could take out Egypt, plus one on their dam on the Nile. 4 or 5 for Saudi Arabia, with a couple tossed into Mecca and Medina for good measure. Syria would be an easy target as well.  Israel would have over 200 bombs left. It would be madness to attack them. 

Maybe Iran is a modern Darth Vader who would ignore the consequences to themselves, but I doubt that they wish to commit national suicide. Iran has no plans to build a nuclear weapon. They may want to be in a position to be able to build one on short notice. I would want that if I were them. 

If you perceive this as anti-Israel, you would be mistaken. The problem is the governments around the world that think they can act immorally and not have it eventually come back to haunt them. 

Let me paraphrase what Paul said in Galatians: “God is not mocked, what a government sows, that they shall also reap.”

Attack on Iran Part 2

Tehran's ParkI mentioned  Saturday that I thought it likely that Israel will attack Iran in October. We cannot be certain, as we cannot know what Obama’s poll numbers will be in October. Obama is not receiving the traditional post-convention bounce in the polls, and this makes an attack more likely. Another piece may be falling into place.

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia — Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird has severed Canadian ties with Iran over its sponsorship of terrorism and amid fears about the safety of diplomats in the country.

Baird says the Canadian embassy in Tehran will close immediately and Iranian diplomats in Canada have been given five days to leave.

The skeleton staff that was operating Canada’s Tehran mission has already fled the country.

Baird says he’s worried about the safety of diplomats in Tehran following recent attacks on the British embassy. 

Giving such an announcement while holding talks with Russia does seem odd. Russia, not Iran, may be the intended recipient of this news. Something seems to be building. I suggest that you keep your gas tank filled. 

I have an acquaintance who has worked in Iran in the past as an oil consultant. He is not there now—smart man.