Well we have to blame someone. I think instead we need to look at him as a motivational speaker. Here is a recent tweet:
China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi.
This is the kind of thing the football coach might tell his players at halftime when they are behind. I guess Trump thinks that China is a part of Team USA. There are several major things wrong with this.
First, what China did to stamp it out was to arrest you if you tested positive and put you in prison. They called it a hospital. But it had bars on the windows. Your family home was then welded shut with your family inside. I doubt any US President is going to do this.
China discovered the virus and its potential deadliness last year. The response? It ordered the lab that isolated the virus to destroy all samples. Then if you talked about it you were punished. I do find it suspicious that a doctor that first warned the world was silenced, and then he died, supposedly from the virus. He was under 40, not exactly the expected outcome for someone his age in good health.
On January 26, China’s military online portal Xilu.com published an article, which claims that the coronavirus is “a biochemical weapon produced by the US to target China.”
“Imperialism has never stopped attacking, destroying, and annihilating China. But China is developing so rapidly that imperialism rips off its mask of hypocrisy and openly acts [against China],” the article claims, in an apparent attempt to shift citizens’ dissatisfaction with the government’s inability to deal with the crisis.
Alex Jones would be proud.
Lastly, China just expelled US Journalists.
What are they afraid of?
I am not one to blame everything on China, but we certainly should not be praising them.
Here is another motivational speaker that actually makes more sense than Trump:
Yes, I am saying it is not going to be that bad. However, there is more risk from governmental action than there is from the virus for the average person.
First, this will dramatically increase the deficit. Eventually, the deficit will destroy the country. How soon, you ask? No one knows. I have been saying that it will not be this crisis but the next one, maybe even the one after-14 years or so. But I was not expecting the unexpected, the black swan. I doubt it, but this could be the big one:
A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.
The Corona virus seems to qualify.
What governmental action am I expecting?
There will be a mandatory quarantine and widespread shuttering of businesses in about a month. This will happen whether or not it is a good idea. Think about it from the government perspective. If the government does nothing, and there is a disaster, the government will be blamed. If the government has some sort of quarantine, and nothing happens, then the government will say, "See it worked!" If there is a crisis, and there was a government shutdown of businesses, then they will say, "See, it would have been even worse without the restrictions." The government could even be right about either of these outcomes. It might actually be the right thing to do.
While a better alternative is self quarantine, or social distancing as it is called:
Social distancing is a set of nonpharmaceutical infection control actions intended to stop or slow down the spread of a contagious disease. The objective of social distancing is to reduce the probability of contact between persons carrying an infection, and others who are not infected, so as to minimize disease transmission, morbidity and ultimately, mortality.[1][2]
Social distancing is most effective when the infection can be transmitted via droplet contact (coughing or sneezing); direct physical contact, including sexual contact; indirect physical contact (e.g. by touching a contaminated surface such as a fomite); or airborne transmission (if the microorganism can survive in the air for long periods).[3]
Social distancing may be less effective in cases where the infection is transmitted primarily via contaminated water or food or by vectors such as mosquitoes or other insects, and less frequently from person to person.[4]
One of the earliest references to social distancing dates to the seventh century BC in the Book of Leviticus, 13:46: "And the leper in whom the plague is...he shall dwell alone; [outside] the camp shall his habitation be."[5]
Historically, leper colonies and lazarettos were established as a means of preventing the spread of leprosy and other contagious diseases through social distancing,[6] until transmission was understood and effective treatments were invented.
As I am 65, I will be doing this more and more as the crisis expands. Everyone should. Do not have any doubt the virus will spread. My church canceled services for the next two weeks and I predict this will be extended until the summer. I had already not gone for two weeks for this reason.
This is happening in Italy right now. No one is to leave their homes except to go to the pharmacy or the grocery store. Unless you are living in the forest, you already know that there are shortages in the supermarkets in the US. My hardware store has no masks that are effective for virus protection, and we can't order any. While buying more than you would need for the next week is prudent, do not be a jerk. Soon it will be forbidden to be a jerk.
The shutdown is coming to a country near you.
While I do not expect the banks to close, it might be advisable, if you are able, to withdraw some cash from savings. Even going to the bank might not be a good idea at some point in the future.
Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are the most likely nominees, but it is not clear who would be president and who would be vice president. I say this even though Sanders will be at the convention with more delegates than anyone else, but not a majority. I say this even though Sanders is leading in the polls for the next few states. The perception is that Sanders can't defeat Trump. My perception is that if Sanders has 40% of the delegates, but does not get the nomination, no other Democrat can beat Trump. If the prevailing opinion is that Sanders is the popular choice, but did not get the nod for the second time, well, that will take the "wind out the the sails" of whoever is the nominee.
Frankly, I do not think it matters much. The new president, or the recycled Trump, will have to deal with an economic crisis almost as bad as 2008. 2021 to 2022 will be an interesting time economically.
As you can see I am flirting with restarting the blog. We will see If I can find the mojo to do it.
Petro Porosenko has a problem. He wants to be reelected as president of Ukraine, but he is coming in at third place, behind a comedian. He needs an issue. You need a little history and geography to understand what is going on.
In 2014 the US orchestrated a coup and removed the elected president from office. Don't believe me? Here is where Victoria Nuland and the US Ambassador to Ukraine plotting the post-coup government.
This tape has a tendency to be removed from You Tube, so if this is read later you might need to search for it.
Naturally since Russia's warm water ports were in Ukraine, Crimea in particular, and the ports were only leased, this was a cause for concern to them. The plan, as NATO has been gradually encroaching on Russia, that the leases would not be renewed and leased to NATO.
Ukraine is rather evenly split into Ukrainian and Russian speaking citizens. Since many former Soviet Republics mistreat their Russian minorities this was a cause for concern. It did not help that after the coup, a bill was introduced in the Ukrainian parliament to make the Russian Language not usable in official business. In the other Republics this was the first step in the persecution of Russian minorities. It also did not help when a former president, Yulia Tymoshenko, jailed for corruption, proposed killing those Russians she did not like.
Note that Yulia Tymoshenko is leading the polls to be elected president of Ukraine, far ahead of Porosenko.
Naturally this lead to discontent and revolt. The Russian Federation supported the rebels, especially in Crimea. Later there was a democratic vote in Crimea where 85% of those voting wanted to become a part of Russia. They are now a part of Russia, although this is not internationally recognized. Rebellion continues in eastern Ukraine.
Now for the geography lesson, here is a map of Crimea.
With the recent construction of a bridge to connect Russia with Crimea, the sea of Azov is now cut off from the Black Sea. The bridge is in the lower right of the map and is 11 miles long. Since the Ukrainian government was not supplying anything through the land bridge between Ukraine and Crimea, this was an obvious necessity. In the past, when transit was desired, the Ukrainian government officially requested it. While the Ukrainian government claims they did so this time, this is obviously untrue. If they had, the passage would have been granted.
While is this such an issue for Russia?
There have been threats and suggestions that the bridge be destroyed. Here is an American proposal in an Oo Ed for the Washington Examiner:
Fortunately Ukraine has the means to launch air strikes against the bridge in a manner that would render it at least temporarily unusable. Because of its significant length, the Ukrainian air force could strike the bridge while mitigating the risk of casualties by those traversing it.
The bridge was suggested as a target by a Ukrainian member of parliament. For some reason this threat was not well publicized in the West. I found this quote on an obscure website.
“The Kerch Bridge is an enemy’s infrastructure. It connects the occupied territory with the mainland of the aggressor country, that is why it is an enemy’s infrastructure,” Mosiychuk said on air of 112 Ukraine channel.
So Ukrainian boats approach the area without notice, naturally this had a response and the ships were detained. For a full description of the incident you can go to the blog Moon Of Alabama.
What do you need to know?
Crimea contains important ports that Russia will not allow to fall into NATO hands. Crimea has been a part of Russia since 1783. The vast majority of Crimea's people want to be in Russia. Russia will go to war rather than lose Crimea. Russia will use nuclear weapons rather than lose a war over Crimea if there was a widescale war.
So the president of Ukraine will risk nuclear annihilation because he is low in the polls and probably won't be reelected. This is the US ally that the US is suppling with weapons.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 2:06PM 
