Queen of Corona

Doom, Despair and Agony on me.

Yes, I am saying it is not going to be that bad. However, there is more risk from governmental action than there is from the virus for the average person.

First, this will dramatically increase the deficit. Eventually, the deficit will destroy the country. How soon, you ask? No one knows. I have been saying that it will not be this crisis but the next one, maybe even the one after-14 years or so. But I was not expecting the unexpected, the black swan. I doubt it, but this could be the big one:

What is a black swan?

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

The Corona virus seems to qualify.

What governmental action am I expecting?

There will be a mandatory quarantine and widespread shuttering of businesses in about a month. This will happen whether or not it is a good idea. Think about it from the government perspective. If the government does nothing, and there is a disaster, the government will be blamed. If the government has some sort of quarantine, and nothing happens, then the government will say, "See it worked!" If there is a crisis, and there was a government shutdown of businesses, then they will say, "See, it would have been even worse without the restrictions." The government could even be right about either of these outcomes. It might actually be the right thing to do.

While a better alternative is self quarantine, or social distancing as it is called:

Social distancing is a set of nonpharmaceutical infection control actions intended to stop or slow down the spread of a contagious disease. The objective of social distancing is to reduce the probability of contact between persons carrying an infection, and others who are not infected, so as to minimize disease transmission, morbidity and ultimately, mortality.^[1][2]

Social distancing is most effective when the infection can be transmitted via droplet contact (coughing or sneezing); direct physical contact, including sexual contact; indirect physical contact (e.g. by touching a contaminated surface such as a fomite); or airborne transmission (if the microorganism can survive in the air for long periods).^[3]

Social distancing may be less effective in cases where the infection is transmitted primarily via contaminated water or food or by vectors such as mosquitoes or other insects, and less frequently from person to person.^[4]

Drawbacks of social distancing can include loneliness, reduced productivity, and the loss of other benefits associated with human interaction.

One of the earliest references to social distancing dates to the seventh century BC in the Book of Leviticus, 13:46: "And the leper in whom the plague is...he shall dwell alone; [outside] the camp shall his habitation be."^[5]

Historically, leper colonies and lazarettos were established as a means of preventing the spread of leprosy and other contagious diseases through social distancing,^[6] until transmission was understood and effective treatments were invented.

As I am 65, I will be doing this more and more as the crisis expands. Everyone should. Do not have any doubt the virus will spread. My church canceled services for the next two weeks and I predict  this will be extended until the summer. I had already not gone for two weeks for this reason.

This is happening in Italy right now. No one is to leave their homes except to go to the pharmacy or the grocery store. Unless you are living in the forest, you already know that there are shortages in the supermarkets in the US. My hardware store has no masks that are effective for virus protection, and we can't order any. While buying more than you would need for the next week is prudent, do not be a jerk. Soon it will be forbidden to be a jerk. 

The shutdown is coming to a country near you.

While I do not expect the banks to close, it might be advisable, if you are able, to withdraw some cash from savings. Even going to the bank might not be a good idea at some point in the future.

Amazon is your friend.