The Cantillon Effect

Since Richard Cantillon has been dead for centuries, the observation he made has entered into the basic economic assumptions that are used by almost everyone. His observation bears his name. 

Yes, the Elites are Drunk on the Wine of the Printing Press.Since Richard Cantillon has been dead for centuries, the observation he made has entered into the basic economic assumptions that are used by almost everyone. His observation bears his name.

In Essai, Richard Cantillon provided an advanced version of John Locke's quantity theory of money, focusing on relative inflation and the velocity of money. Cantillon suggested that inflation occurs gradually and that the new supply of money has a localised effect on inflation, effectively originating the concept of non-neutral money. Furthermore, he posited that the original recipients of new money enjoy higher standards of living at the expense of later recipients. The concept of relative inflation, or a disproportionate rise in prices among different goods in an economy, is now known as the Cantillon Effect.

So if the government is increasing the amount of money in circulation, it helps those who get it first. If the Fed prints money by buying mortgages, the money goes directly to the banks and props up real estate prices. In addition it flows directly to the wealthy--the well connected wealthy. If you want to know why the printing presses keep printing ask yourself that famous Latin phrase cui bono--"who benefits." Or as the Watergate investigators kept saying--"follow the money."

There is an interesting proposal by Australian economist Steven Keen that this process be reversed. His proposal is to give a trillion or two directly to the people. Keen blogs at Debt Deflation. His catch is that the money must be spent on debt reduction. This would be trickle up economics. It would be no more harmful than the current procedure to give the money to the banks, and since this would reduce debt, and we have a debt-based economy, this could be mildly deflationary.

I feel reluctant to endorse this proposal as it seems like curing a hangover with a morning pick-me-up. However things are so messed up that a proposal like this may be the best way out. I would combine it with a budget freeze and medical reform. Then the US could work its way gradually out of the mess it is in.

Of course the chance of such a program being implemented is close to zero. Because of the unlikelihood of any meaningful reform, I think I will blog less about economics. As I have already done with my political posts, I will reduce my economic posts greatly as they are mostly an exercise in futility.

Instead I will blog more about diet and exercise, and religion. While the failure rate for people changing their lifestyle is about 95%, at least it is not 99.9% as it is in politics and economics. I think I will find this much more satisfying and productive.

Watch this space.

8 Year Cycle

After talking about the dangers of predicting the future yesterday, I will of course offer my predictions in this post. 

I know a lot of the "hard money types" are predicting that 2014 will be a bad year. I think that we all need to keep in mind the bad track record of all prognosticators, except the most lucky. Yes, I am saying that those with the most success have mostly been just lucky. Here are some dire predictions for 2014.  

These are all people I respect, but I think they overlook the resilience of the market. They also may be overlooking the cyclical nature of the business cycle. That is why it is called a cycle

No I am not talking about the supposed 50 year cycle. I am talking about the "normal" business cycle that seems to last about 8 years. A little history is in order. 

In the late 60's the war in Vietnam and the "Great Society" of Lyndon Johnson were attempted at the same time. It did not go well. President Nixon did much the same. (Note that Nixon was not a conservative, odd as that sounds. In my first presidential election I refused to vote for him.) The whole period of the early 70's was a difficult time, so it is difficult to pick an exact beginning date for my proposed 8 year cycle. But this was the beginning of it.

Around 1979 the cycle reached another point. This was when President Carter appointed Volker to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. This cost Carter the election. He probably knew it would. Yes, I am praising Carter. Volker raised interest rates to a degree unprecedented in US history. I remember paying 22% interest on the loan I took out to buy cattle. As you might guess this did not end well. 

The next low point in the cycle was 1991. This allowed Clinton to defeat Bush even though the recession had already ended by Election Day. "It's the economy stupid." 

The next low point in the cycle was March 2000 when the tech bubble burst. Fed chairman Greenspan had goosed the economy to prevent the great non crisis of the year 2000. This probably elected George Bush to the White House. "It's the economy stupid." 

Not letting the US work its way out of the mess of the tech bubble, Greenspan goosed the economy again. This led to the crisis in 2008. This led to Obama being elected president. "It's the economy stupid." 

If this pattern continues, a mighty big if, then one could reasonably expect 2016, give or take a year, to be the next crisis point. Since "It's the economy stupid," this may mean that the next crisis will determine if we have another President Clinton or a President Ryan. (Alas, it will not be the President Ryan in the fictional Tom Clancy series.) 

So here is my prediction for you. President Clinton will have to deal with a crisis much worse than 2008. It will be on the order of the crisis that Carter/Reagan dealt with. Interest rates will go "crazy," and return to their normal level. Since this will impact the budget deficit, the deficit will rise to the levels at the beginning of the Obama regime. (Or if you prefer, the end of the Bush regime.) How bad this will be is anyone's guess. As Yogi Berra once said, "it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."

Prepare as best you can. 

Bad Predictions

As I draw this series of blog posts on economics to a close, I thought that mentioning that I actually have no idea what the future holds was a good idea. I can confidently state that the present mess cannot continue. The real question is how will it not continue. Will there be a period of difficulty during which basic reforms are made? Will there be a crash with riots in the streets when the EBT cards fail? Will there be a period where precious metals have no value, talked about in Revelation 5? Will there be such inflation that a cup of coffee costs $100? Will there be a generational economic decline? 

No one knows. 

In such a period investment is difficult, maybe even impossible. 

So the advice I have offered in the past has been designed for any time. Reduce debt. Have some precious metals. Consider renting near your place of employment with good bus lines. Be the best employee your employer has. Live within your means. This is not rocket science.

Remember that people a lot smarter than you or I have lost a lot more money than you or I will ever have in dumb investments. Zero Hedge published a list of really bad economic predictions by really smart people.  Sir Isaac Newton, maybe the smartest man to ever live, lost most of his fortune in an absurd investment fraud--the South Sea Company.

Meditate on these failures and get ready.

Oh, Brave Sir Ryan

The Ryan budget deal is not a good deal. It trades a 62 billion dollar cut over two years for an 80 billion cut over ten years, with no guarantee that any cuts will actually be made in the future. The Medicare cuts are particularly suspect as they fall entirely on doctors. Many will simple refuse Medicare patients, many are already refusing new Medicare patients and are letting the problem gradually decrease over time.

I think that Ryan is making a short term political decision over the US long term health.

Oh, and these cuts? They are not in fact cuts at all but future reductions in planned spending.

I was reminded of brave Sir Robin from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

Oh, Brave Sir Ryan!

Health Care Solutions?

While health care is only a small part of the interview, it seems to me that unless Health care is solved some of the worst case economic scenarios become more likley. Kotlikoff's solution seems radical, but it is worth an examination.