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Arthur Koestler 

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Friday
Dec202013

Bad Predictions

As I draw this series of blog posts on economics to a close, I thought that mentioning that I actually have no idea what the future holds was a good idea. I can confidently state that the present mess cannot continue. The real question is how will it not continue. Will there be a period of difficulty during which basic reforms are made? Will there be a crash with riots in the streets when the EBT cards fail? Will there be a period where precious metals have no value, talked about in Revelation 5? Will there be such inflation that a cup of coffee costs $100? Will there be a generational economic decline? 

No one knows. 

In such a period investment is difficult, maybe even impossible. 

So the advice I have offered in the past has been designed for any time. Reduce debt. Have some precious metals. Consider renting near your place of employment with good bus lines. Be the best employee your employer has. Live within your means. This is not rocket science.

Remember that people a lot smarter than you or I have lost a lot more money than you or I will ever have in dumb investments. Zero Hedge published a list of really bad economic predictions by really smart people.  Sir Isaac Newton, maybe the smartest man to ever live, lost most of his fortune in an absurd investment fraud--the South Sea Company.

Meditate on these failures and get ready.

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