Wink, Wink, Nudge, Nudge, Say No More

I have long thought that an attack on Iran was inevitable. This despite the fact that there is no evidence that Iran has nuclear weapons, or even has a program to make them. The only question on my mind was who would attack and when the attack would take place. I have also wondered about the potential air base support of Israel's ally Georgia.

My first guess was that it would be this summer. It could not be too close to the election as that would be too obvious. My second guess was that Israel would do the deed, with modest protests from Obama. Obama has to be careful here to not seem too in favor or too against an attack. 

But the risk to Obama might be that he would lose too many votes from his own supporters if he supported, even clandestinely, an attack. So now the media is reporting this?

The US offered to give Israel advanced weaponry -- including bunker-busting bombs and refueling planes -- in exchange for Israel's agreement not to attack Iranian nuclear sites, Israeli newspaper Maariv reported Thursday.

President Obama reportedly made the offer during Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington this week.

Under the proposed deal, Israel would not attack Iran until 2013, after US elections in November this year. The newspaper cited unnamed Western diplomatic and intelligence sources.

Are You Smarter Than The Average Berra? This is brilliant on his part. He is letting everyone who pays attention know the attack will take place, but not loudly enough for his supporters to realize this. He has plausible deniability. This may get him the votes of the informed independents that support war but not cost him the votes of the uniformed Democrats who are against the war. 

We need to watch world news (For those unfamiliar with my religious tradition this is a joke as this was often said to confuse the lay people so they would not watch the machinations at denominational headquarters—classic “misdirection”) and at the same time ignore most of what the media is saying. As Yogi Berra said, "You can observe a lot by watching."  It is not clear what has been decided, or if anything has been decided. As Yogi also said, "It ain't over till it's over," and "the trouble with predicting the future is it hasn't happened yet.” Unfortunately we will see. As Yogi also said, and my final quote from Yogi for the day, “The future isn't what it used to be.”