Why Trump Will Win: Out Thinking His Opposition

If Trump can stay one step ahead, he will win the political game. Here is an example of him doing just that. 

A document from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) indicates that Donald Trump took steps last week to outmaneuver nonprofit organizations, leaving them unable to officially campaign against him over the next few years of his Presidency.

Filed on January 20th, 2017, the letter states that, while not an official announcement for reelection, Donald Trump has filed an FEC Form 2 in order to “ensure compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.” This is an unprecedented, although legal, move for the President to make. Barack Obama did not file for his 2012 re-election bid until April 2011. Having filed (even if not formally announcing a bid) as a candidate, Trump would be able to coordinate with PACs and other similar organizations.

More importantly, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organizations would no longer be able to engage in “political speech” which could theoretically affect the results of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election without running the risk of losing their nonprofit status. The move effectively bars interest groups from creating nonprofits which they could funnel money into for the purposes of opposing Trump’s initiatives. This will likely create chaos for political opponents of Trump such as George Soros, who has sunk significant amounts of money into various nonprofit groups with the intent of opposing Trump’s government. How 501(c)(3) organizations will comply with the FEC’s regulations when participating an actions which qualify as political speech remains to be seen.

Why Trump Will Fail: Immigration

While Trump’s position on immigration is a majority position, that could change suddenly if Trump is not careful. It all depends on what he eventually negotiates.

Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert had this comment: 

Trump’s temporary immigration ban set a mental anchor in your brain that is frankly shocking. It will make his eventual permanent immigration plan (”extreme vetting”) look tame by comparison. The Persuasion Filter says that’s his strategy. Because that’s ALWAYS his strategy. He acts the same way every time. He wrote a book about it. He talks about it publicly. Then he does it right in front of us, over and over. And no matter how many times he does it, half the country still thinks the opening offer is the real one.

The entire article is worth reading.  

There are three areas that Trump needs to negotiate to make this area of his presidency a success. The first is the “Dreamers.” Those are the children of immigrants that came here as young children. It does not seem reasonable to deport them. As I am doing in all these posts, I am not commenting on the morality of it, only the persuasion and tactical political aspects. Because of this, even though Trump may care less about these people, it seems likely he will strike some sort of deal.

Another aspect is that tech companies rely on special visas to allow tech workers to immigrate relatively easily. Of course this results in America workers not being hired. The claim is that these workers are not available. Of course they aren’t. As long as the big tech companies continue to import thousands of these workers, no one is going to train for a job that will be taken by a cheaper outsider. It seems to me that Trump will cut these visa programs as the tech industry made a clear choice for Clinton, and these kind of choices mean the tech industry has no friends in a Trump administration. This might create problems for the tech industry, and this may result in lackluster growth. At least that will be the claim made by the tech giants no matter what. This might be a losing proposition, but it could still win for Trump if it is perceived as a victory. Perception is all that matters. 

The final aspect of the illegal immigration trouble is that in certain industries the reliance on these illegal workers is very high. If suddenly no workers are available at harvest time, this would result in high losses for farmers and high prices for consumers. This is unacceptable. If Trump negotiates some sort of Bracero program like they had in the 60’s the net result would be positive for everyone. I doubt that college students will take the summer to pick vegetables. 

Will Trump’s immigration plan succeed? 

Right now he has no plan so no one can say. If Trump is perceived to be fair to the Dreamers; fair to American tech workers; fair to farmers and seasonal workers, then yes he will succeed. 

But will he? I think not, but Trump prides himself on his negotiation skills so who knows? 

Why Trump Will Succeed: Immigration

Trump is using the majority opinion on Illegal Immigration in the states Republicans are likely to win to forge a new electoral coalition. As I said in an earlier blog post, it does not matter what the morality might be. It does not matter what the economics might be, it only matters how people feel about Immigration. (Note that I left out the word illegal in the last sentence.)

Any immigration will tend to reduce wages, it is a simple matter of supply and demand. While to some extent immigration creates its own demand, this factor will not be enough. Unskilled wages, and eventually all wages will go up, if immigration declines. This is especially true with illegal immigration. Wages have been declining for decades. This has not escaped the attention of working class Americans. 

Trump’s opinion on immigration is actually quite in step with the majority opinion in “red” states, the states Republicans need for a successful election. Calling these views xenophobic will actually help Trump as those who hold these views know that it is a lie, and this will drive them to be even more anti-immigration. 

Here is an example from that well know xenophobe, Bill Clinton. The transcription is a little rough, but in general it is correct. You can also listen to it on YouTube.

"We are a nation of immigrants …  but we are a nation of laws"  "Our nation is rightly disturbed by the large numbers of illegal aliens entering our country...  Illegal immigrants take jobs from citizens or legal immigrants,they impose burdens on our taxpayers... That is why we are doubling the number of border guards, deporting more illegal immigrants than ever before, cracking down on illegal hiring, barring benefits to illegal aliens, and we will do more to speed the deportation of illegal immigrants arrest for crimes... It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws that has occurred in the last few years.. and we must do more to stop it." [Standing Ovation]

Corporate Fascism

Yes, the US is a fascist nation. 

Why Trump Will Win

The reason Trump will win has little to do with the facts. It has everything to do with Trump being a master salesman. Especially when you add this to the obvious observation that Trump Derangement Syndrome is far worse than either Obama or Bush Derangement Syndrome. Here is a quote from John Avlon that explains it. 

It's important to remember that Bush Derangement Syndrome on the left - comparing him to Hitler, calling him a terrorist and a tyrant - preceded Obama Derangement Syndrome on the right. 

Now we have Trump Derangement Syndrome in full swing. This also has little to do with the facts. Just as Bush Derangement Syndrome helped Bush, and Obama Derangement Syndrome helped Obama. Trump Derangement Syndrome will help Trump. 

A subcategory, Bannon Derangement Syndrome, is also in full swing. What matters is not facts, but our feeling about the people involved. Bannon, an experienced financial Goldman Sacs alumni, was CEO of a new media company Breitbart. I seldom looked at Breitbart, nor any of the leftist clones like Buzzfeed, but he does understand new media. That is his place. He is like Bush’s Karl Rove, or Obama’s David Axelrod—or Hitler’s Goebbels. 

My last example naturally leads to a discussion of what words one uses. I began with calling Trump a salesman, a slightly negative connotation. I could have used the word persuader, which is more positive, or the word manipulator or propagandist. Both of these are a lot more negative. They all mean the same basic thing. You can tell a lot about the viewpoint of an author by closely looking at what words they use. When you call someone a Nazi, when clearly they are not, it actually tends to help them among a certain segment of the populace. Why then is someone called a Nazi? It is actually a Goebbels technique. If you say a lie loudly and often enough, a certain segment of the population is going to believe it.  

Ultimately Trump may win because he is a lot better at this than his detractors. The current scandal du jour is a prime example of this. You would think that with all the rhetoric like "this is not my America" that most would be against Trump. They are not. A recent Rasmussen poll estimated that 57% of the people favor the temporary refusal to allow entry to immigrants and visitors from some countries. 33% are opposed, and 11% are undecided. I saw another poll where it was 48% in favor and 40% against. When someone is in favor of this policy, and they hear the extreme rhetoric, they are actually going to be driven to support the policy even more. Someone like me who is skeptical of the policy, will be driven in the direction of supporting it. 

There are a lot of things stacked against whoever is the current president. We are actually in a rather rough spot in many ways. Even a President Clinton would have had to face these same issues. She would have handled them no better, but at least we are not in a war with Russia. (Note that several of the videos in my old blog post have been removed from YouTube.) 

I will continue to talk here about the issues we face for the near future.