Why Trump Will Fail: Immigration

While Trump’s position on immigration is a majority position, that could change suddenly if Trump is not careful. It all depends on what he eventually negotiates.

Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert had this comment: 

Trump’s temporary immigration ban set a mental anchor in your brain that is frankly shocking. It will make his eventual permanent immigration plan (”extreme vetting”) look tame by comparison. The Persuasion Filter says that’s his strategy. Because that’s ALWAYS his strategy. He acts the same way every time. He wrote a book about it. He talks about it publicly. Then he does it right in front of us, over and over. And no matter how many times he does it, half the country still thinks the opening offer is the real one.

The entire article is worth reading.  

There are three areas that Trump needs to negotiate to make this area of his presidency a success. The first is the “Dreamers.” Those are the children of immigrants that came here as young children. It does not seem reasonable to deport them. As I am doing in all these posts, I am not commenting on the morality of it, only the persuasion and tactical political aspects. Because of this, even though Trump may care less about these people, it seems likely he will strike some sort of deal.

Another aspect is that tech companies rely on special visas to allow tech workers to immigrate relatively easily. Of course this results in America workers not being hired. The claim is that these workers are not available. Of course they aren’t. As long as the big tech companies continue to import thousands of these workers, no one is going to train for a job that will be taken by a cheaper outsider. It seems to me that Trump will cut these visa programs as the tech industry made a clear choice for Clinton, and these kind of choices mean the tech industry has no friends in a Trump administration. This might create problems for the tech industry, and this may result in lackluster growth. At least that will be the claim made by the tech giants no matter what. This might be a losing proposition, but it could still win for Trump if it is perceived as a victory. Perception is all that matters. 

The final aspect of the illegal immigration trouble is that in certain industries the reliance on these illegal workers is very high. If suddenly no workers are available at harvest time, this would result in high losses for farmers and high prices for consumers. This is unacceptable. If Trump negotiates some sort of Bracero program like they had in the 60’s the net result would be positive for everyone. I doubt that college students will take the summer to pick vegetables. 

Will Trump’s immigration plan succeed? 

Right now he has no plan so no one can say. If Trump is perceived to be fair to the Dreamers; fair to American tech workers; fair to farmers and seasonal workers, then yes he will succeed. 

But will he? I think not, but Trump prides himself on his negotiation skills so who knows?