The Wuhanic Plague

A nonacademic question for us all is: "What is the death rate of the corona virus?" The BBC makes this estimate:

Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.

On Tuesday, the World Health Organization's Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that "globally, about 3.4% of reported Covid-19 cases have died".

Scientists' estimate of the death rate is lower because not all cases are reported.

On Sunday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the UK government's "very best assessment" was that the mortality rate was "2% or, likely, lower".

But it depends on a range of factors: your age, sex and general health and the health system you are in.

The current reported death rate seems to be 3%, 5% in Italy and .5% in South Korea. I have seen estimates of 10% in Iran. As  point of comparison, the standard flu kills .1%.

Why the difference among countries? Here are some options.

There a an "up and coming" internet theory that there are two variants of the virus. One not much worse than the flu, another that has a very high death rate.  The main point about this is that there is zero evidence that this is the case. One web site I looked at said "Chinese scientists say," without a reference to where they got this. Why in the world would anyone believe a random web site?

In any country, there are a limited number of ventilator machines. It was regarded in the US as "inefficient" to have too many. In normal times yes. But during times of large numbers of  infections, not even to the pandemic level, there may be a shortage. The death rate will vary based on the number of ventilators per capita. So if you want to predict the death rate when there are no spare respirators, look to this number. Russia, China, Germany and Japan should have low death rates. The US should be medium. Italy, Spain, and the UK should be high.

The number of Intensive Care hospital beds per capita is another factor. So if you want to predict the death rate when there are no Intensive care beds left, look to this number. Russia, China, Germany and Japan should have low death rates. The US should be medium. Italy, Spain, and the UK should be high.

The shortage of ventilators and ICU hospital beds is why the "shelter in place" suggestions is the recommendation. I agree since this virus seems to be three times as infectious as the flu. In my opinion it can't continue for long without the cure being worse than the disease.

The CDC is not recommending masks to the general public. Why? Because there is a shortage, not because they do not work. The world has outsourced the manufacturing of many items to China. This is one reason why there is a shortage of masks. Russia, because of sanctions, has not done so to the same degree and is in a better place for this kind of crisis. I doubt the US will change its behavior.

Finally, the reason the death rate is so high is a lack of testing. Even So Korea has not tested that many. I could not find a current estimate for Korea, but the one I saw last week had the testing rate of 5,000 per million.  This was still double the next highest and hugely above the others. Korea has a .5% death rate as a result. But even in Korea, the number of cases must be greater than is reported. The math is undeniable. Number of deaths due to Corona virus/the total number of cases is the death rate as a percentage. If the total number of cases is twice the number now reported, the death rate is halved. The total case number might be as much as 10 times higher.

While I support the the stay at home policy and wear a mask when I go out (I am 65), it seems to me that the virus is a case of mass hysteria. The crisis does exist, but the cure is going to be worse than the disease.