My Predictions for 2016

In the spirit of the Amazing Kreskin, I offer my predictions for 2016. Or maybe it is in the spirit of the Amazing Criswell.I will do better!

1. Saxo Bank also does predictions and they expect the Russian Ruble to go up 20%. This is related to their prediction that oil prices will go back up and approach $100. This seems goofy to me. I predict that the Ruble will fall from the current 70 to the dollar to 90, a fall of 30%. On my first trip to Russia in 2001 it was 27 to the dollar. The fall in the Ruble is not so much because Russia is weak, but more that the "powers that be" want Russia to be weak. 

2. I will move to Russia. 

3. Oil will go down to $30 but then back up to $45. Russia is planning on $40 oil for the next 5 years. This will be bad for Russia, but not catastrophic because of the weaker Ruble. It will be bad for Saudi Arabia with its fixed exchange rate. Bonus Prediction: The house of Saud will fall within 5 years if low oil prices continue that long. 

4. We just learned that Juliette is alive. (I predicted this to my daughter.) She and Nick will get married in the 2016/2017 season. 

5. Russia's adventure in Syria will not go well, but it won't go badly either. Putin feels he has no choice but to fight in Syria as a large portion of the ISIS fighters are ethnic Chechens from Russia. Russia lost the first Chechen War, but won the second. Putin does not want there to be a third. For an interesting discussion of why Putin is in Syria, click here. 

6. In 2016 we will discover the answer to that age-old question, "Is the Pope Catholic?" The answer is no.

7. There will be a settlement in Ukraine because both the West and Russia want one. The Ukrainians would rather kill each other. 

8. Miley Cyrus will get married. In a ground breaking ceremony, she will marry herself. 

9. The hard money crowd will continue to predict inflation, they will continue to be wrong. The Fed will, as it did on December 16, try to increase interest rates. While the interest rates will technically be higher in that the rate that the Fed will loan money to banks will go up, in reality the strong deflationary pressures will continue and there will be little increase in rates. I doubt the Fed will reduce reserves by the one trillion or so needed to actually increase interest rates. The dollar will continue to be strong.

10. In a close election Cruz will lose to Clinton. Chelsea will be a fine President.