Sell

Is it time to sell investments? While I still expect real assets to be up in the long run, as Keynes said, "In the long run we are all dead." First there has to be an asset crash. As I have mentioned, I do not expect it to be this year. Instead I expect a sideways market with a slightly downward direction. 

Why do I eventually expect a crash? Mish Shedlock provides the answer:

Amazon: AMZN : The PE of Amazon is 592, Valuation is $160 Billion  

Linked In: LNKD : PE of Linked In is 837, Valuation is $23 Billion 

Facebook : FB: Facebook PE is 106, Valuation is $165  Billion 

Priceline : PCLN : PE of Priceline is 36, Valuation is $64 Billion

Hertz : HTZ: PE of Hertz is 37, Valuation is $12 Billion 

Starbucks : SBUX : PE of Starbucks is 483, Valuation is $57 Billion  

Boston Beer (Samuel Adams) : SAM : PE of Boston Beer is 43, Valuation is $3 Billion

(The article this is taken from discusses the different types of inflation and deflation and is a good summary for those interested in this topic.) 

These are goofy prices. Historically the average PE (price to earnings ration) has been about 15-25. These prices cannot continue. Remember Herb Stein, "What can't continue, won't continue." 

Expect a more normal evaluation for the stock market. Yes, there may be still more potential on the upside, but maybe you are smarter than me, I cannot predict when prices will fall.  

Sell now while you can still get these values.