Poster Phalsity and Energy Emergence

I used to just repost things on email, and now on Facebook, without thinking about them too much. Now I think about the poster before I resend it to others. If it is untrue, do I want my name associated with it? Here is another post where I talk about this from a Biblical perspective.   

I noticed recently another meme that is making the rounds—Obama as the cause of high gas prices. I was suspicious about this meme from the start. While there are many things that a government can do to skew prices, commodity prices are not in the government's control. “I do not like high prices, and I do not like Obama, therefore it is his fault” seems to be the philosophy. 

Personally, I like high prices! Don't get me wrong, I grumble about the price of gas as much as the next person. But high prices send us signals. They tell me that I need to try to use less of the product than I used to. Rather than just jumping in the car and going off the hill for various products, I plan and buy these products on one combined trip. (I live 30 minutes away from most major shopping.) These price signals also tell producers that there is money to be made. They produce more. This is good. 

I saw an interesting chart at the Cambridge House conference I attended. It showed a gradual increase in US energy production. It is a combination of rising prices and new technology. While any trend can stop unexpectedly, the speaker pointed out that if this continues the US will be self-sufficient in 10 to 15 years! Yeah. Personally when I look at the prices, I think of the American oil producers and a disappointed Saudi King and I feel much better. 

So are gas prices higher under Obama? Is the meme correct? The answer to that is yes and no. Let’s look at some posters, the first two from Facebook, and the last from Vox Day's blog. 

The first one is a motorcycle rider waving and complaining about Obama complaining about Bush, a nice combination of two memes. I think that the Obama as anti-Bush meme has a lot more validity than the Obama gas meme. But why is there a motorcycle rider saying this? 

The second poster is getting some sharing among my friends on Facebook. It shows the increase of gas prices from Obama's inaugural month to today. As near as I can tell it is accurate, but misleading. Look at the next chart—by extending the time frame slightly it shows something different. Gas was much higher at the end of the Bush administration than in previous years, in fact it was just as high as it is now. I blame Bush.

Both blaming Bush or Obama for high prices is valid, if you criticize them for interfering in the market, but otherwise neither jab is fair. 

The purpose of the third chart is an internal debate among the hard money types about whether we can expect inflation or deflation in the coming crisis. (I do not think there were any deflationists at the conference.) Vox's point is that prices are not going up in energy if you go back to 2008. He is right, but his chart suffers the same problem as the second chart. If you go back farther then it will show a definite upward trend. There is inflation in the system, but Vox is partially right, inflation is not a huge problem at this time. 

Remember that statistics are ripe for misinformation. If you are not confident in an internet story, or do not wish to take the time to track it down, then do not repost. 

I concluded my post on the Telephone game with a Weird Al song. Here it is again. Stop Forwarding that Crap to Me.