So Far, So Good

As near as I can tell the negative trends for the US economic future outweigh the positive trends. One friend on Facebook commented on my theories and suggested that yes, there is a business cycle and a recession can obviously be expected.  This reminds me of two jokes. The first is that Pundit Smith did predict the last recession, but then again he predicted 5 of the last 3 recessions. I resemble this. But then there is the other joke. A man jumped off the Empire State Building and was heard to say half-way down..."So far, so good." 

Yes, so far things are good. But I see the ground rapidly approaching. This is not a normal business cycle recession, it is a once in a century event worse than the really bad event in 2008. I do not expect that US dominance will end in this next crisis, but the US dominance will be mortally wounded. 

Here are the positive and negative trends as I see them. 

Positive Trends

1. Things are bad in Japan.

2. Things are marginal in China.

3. Things are mixed in Europe.

4. The US dollar is still King.

5. The US military is the strongest.

Negative Trends

1. Interest rates are at low rates; this cannot last.

2. Corporate profits are at high rates; this cannot last.

3. The US budget deficit continues with no solution in sight. 

4. Medicare is not sustainable.

5. The US military is the strongest. 

Over the next week or so, interspersed with my normal eclectic posts, I will blog on some of these issues.