Russian Motivations Part 2

I mentioned last Saturday that Russia had legitimate fears for their fellow religionists that now live in Syria. This explains a lot of Russian support for Syria. But there are other geopolitical reasons as well. 

There are regional rivalries in the area. Russia supports some governments and does not support others. For example Russia supports Armenia in its dispute with Azerbaijan over a province in Azerbaijan. 

On 23 August 1990, Armenia declared independence, becoming the first non-Baltic republic to secede from the Soviet Union. When, in 1991, the Soviet Union was dissolved, Armenia's independence was officially recognized. However, the initial post-Soviet years were marred by economic difficulties as well as the break-out of a full-scale armed confrontation between the Karabakh Armenians and Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh War). The economic problems had their roots early in the Karabakh conflict when the Azerbaijani Popular Front managed to pressure the Azerbaijan SSR to instigate a railway and air blockade against Armenia. This move effectively crippled Armenia's economy as 85% of its cargo and goods arrived through rail traffic. In 1993, Turkey joined the blockade against Armenia in support of Azerbaijan.

 Who won the war?

The Karabakh war ended after a Russian-brokered cease-fire was put in place in 1994. The war was a success for the Karabakh Armenian forces who managed to capture 16% of Azerbaijan's internationally recognised territory including Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Since then, Armenia and Azerbaijan have held peace talks, mediated by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The status of Karabakh has yet to be determined. The economies of both countries have been hurt in the absence of a complete resolution and Armenia's borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan remain closed. By the time both Azerbaijan and Armenia had finally agreed to a ceasefire in 1994, an estimated 30,000 people had been killed and over a million had been displaced. 

The reason for the conflict is the status of ethnic Armenians within the old borders of Soviet Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh was in particular majority Armenian ethnically. 

So how does this relate to Syria? Azerbaijan is rich in oil, but is a landlocked country. Where will the pipelines go? If an agreement is ever given one logical route would be through Armenia, Turkey, and then Syria. The difficulty of negotiating such a pipeline should be evident. But from the Russian perspective this would be far superior than going through Georgia, an anti-Russian country to the north of Azerbaijan. For some reason Azerbaijan does not want to ship their oil through Russia! In the Middle East oil is always in the picture, even in countries that do not have oil like Syria. 

Look at the natural gas pipeline map from Egyptian gas deposits. Is it a coincidence that Homs, a major pipeline center is an area of conflict in the unrest in Syria?  

Another reason for Russian support of Syria flows out of the breakup of the Soviet Union. The Russian Federation has few warm water ports. What ports it does have tend to be in other countries like the Ukraine. Since 1971 there has been a Russian naval base in Syria.  This is an important point for Russia as it needs such bases for its navy. 

From the Russian perspective they have legitimate reasons to support the Syrian government. 

On Friday I plan to continue the series and talk about the propaganda that you see on both Network Television and Cable News.