Week 11: Charlie Chan and the Mystery of Obesity

I have been watching old Charlie Chan movies. While I would not call them the greatest movies ever made, they are not bad. Charlie Chan sometimes makes jokes about his weight. To my eyes he does not look that fat, but to the eyes of the people at that time he was. Today he would be considered average. I can only recall one other actor that was fat, a police officer in Panama. Everyone else was attractive and thin, even the older actors. (It does look odd to see their pants worn so high on the waist. There is a reason that baggy pants are so popular, even our youth has a belly.) Of course this is not entirely a fair comparison to make as modern movies also have thin people as actors. But there is no doubt that people now are much heavier than they were back then.

Starting around 1970 people started eating an extra 400 more calories a day on average. Why? The theories abound: increased high fructose corn syrup, genetic changes in wheat, more sedentary lifestyle and so on. We will be discussing some of these theories as the weeks progress, but I think the ultimate answer is a combination of "no one knows" with "yes, each of these things are important." But there is another factor that has been developing over the last 100 years that I think has an impact.

Look at this very well-made piece of propaganda:

The idea behind this commercial is to relive one’s youth through cereal consumption. Should we really care that now it is “whole” wheat? It is still a huge sugar load that will eventually zap your energy when your blood sugar level crashes. The reason that so many dietitians advocate many meals a day, or substantial snacks, is that eating products like this lead to sugar highs and crashes. You need a snack at 11 and 3 to keep up your sugar level in the blood. But if you have meals higher in protein and fat, the meal stays with you.

Experiment on yourself. Have a high cereal/carbohydrate breakfast and see how hungry you feel at 11. Then the next day have a higher fat breakfast like eggs with meat and see how you feel at 11. Most people will be less hungry. This kind of experiment on oneself is very important and I will recommend a few in the coming weeks.

Why do the cereal companies want you to eat their product? Obviously they make money.

Here is what one commentator had to say about boxed cereal costs:

"Normally one would not eat these colors.
How do the prices of cereal compare to other foods, like meat?  Well, whole chicken, at $1.29 per pound, is 8.1 cents per ounce; chuck roast, bone in, is 12.4 (both cheaper than Raisin Bran); New York steak is 40.6 cents per ounce; and top round (London broil) is 24.3.  I suppose we might expect a higher quality cut of meat to be more expensive than breakfast cereal, but it could come as a shock to learn that for the same price you pay for Cocoa Puffs or Froot Loops, you could be eating London broil.  Either that, or you can’t compare Raisin Bran and roast beef."

While these figures are from 1999, I doubt that the relative comparison has changed much.

Try a little experiment the next time you go to the grocery store. Take a calculator, or use your phone and take the price of the boxed cereal and divide by the ounces—then multiple by 16. That is the price per pound. Then go to the meat department and compare.

I did this in 2012 in the mountain community where I live. The Lucky Charms cost $6.66 a pound. Hmm.

The most expensive cuts of meat were 8 to 12 dollars per pound. Perfectly fine sirloin was $4.99, and you could get 2 pounds of chicken for $6. Or one could get 2 1/2 dozen eggs instead of one pound of that cereal. Lucky Charms were not a good value.

Whenever you see an ad, for anything, they are trying to persuade you to buy a product. Advertising is expensive. Only brands with high profit margins are going to be advertised by the manufacturer. (Of course there are ads by retailers that advertise a product at a cheap price to get you into the store. You can do well if you take an ad, buy those items in the ad that you need, and then leave the store. The store will lose money. Do this to every store and then shop for those items not on sale that you still need.)

Naturally high-profit items like cereal support a higher ad budget, but while saving money is good, there is a greater principal involved. Ads actually influence the choices we make in our everyday food consumption. Who doesn't want to have it their way at Burger King? Or be all they can be? Surely you want to Eat More Chikin! After all, its good to the last drop.

Advertising influences us in ways we cannot even begin to imagine--until we start to think about it.

Why is Bacon and Eggs a popular breakfast today? Bernays, the man who made Breakfast and Eggs the standard breakfast tells us how he did it:



Obviously Bernays, the nephew of Sigmund Freud, might be exaggerating his importance. Pam Dewey, the beloved editor of this blog, has written a whole series on the power of advertising and public relations (a term invented by Bernays because the more proper term propaganda is so colored as a pejorative word.) Your homework is the section on the adoption of Bacon and Eggs as the stereotypical all-American breakfast that she wrote.  You might consider reading another series she did on propaganda. If you really want some extra credit you can watch part I of a documentary on Bernays I have been going on and on about for years! 

Quit watching ad-supported entertainment as much as you can. It is not free, it costs you more than paying for your entertainment. You may think you are not being influenced, but you are. This is a part of leaving what the Bible calls Babylon the Great.

You might just cut the cable and save that $50 to $100 a month it is costing you. That is what I did. The Charlie Chan movies I am watching? All are free on Youtube. Netflix, no ads, and Hulu, no ads if you pay extra, can keep you up to date on most of your favorite programs. Another option is to get a DVR and record everything. I remember the great satisfaction the first time I recorded a football game and started watching it one hour after it started and I fast-forwarded through all the boring parts and the commercials. When you do, you give yourself an extra hour in that day. I find the time saving alone important.

No matter how sophisticated you think you are, you are being filled with propaganda all the time. Understanding this intellectually helps, but until you quit watching the commercials you will be influenced by them. You will be buying food you really do not want to buy, and may, no will, sabotage your health.

Upper Class Angst

I recently shared an article on Facebook that summed up the anger that many feel.  The point of this series of three blogposts is not to discuss the article. I posted it to show the anger that is currently felt, and how this helps Trump.

Why are the upper class filled with angst? Before I answer that I need to define what I mean by upper class. I mean the entrepreneurial part of society--business owners of small to medium businesses, CEO and CFO's of medium business, upper middle management of large companies and so on. I am not including the stereotypical 1%, the powers that be, whatever you want to call them, as they are part of the problem, they are to a degree the cause of the angst.

The article blames taxes for the author's angst. This is fair. The 1% tend to structure their income in such a way to pay 20% of their income or so in personal taxes. But the upper class cannot always structure their income that way, so they pay the full brunt of the highest marginal rates if they have  enough income. But the main reason the entrepreneurial class is surviving angst is Walmart, Walgreens, Lowes, Staples and especially Amazon. Each of these mega corporations has devastated a whole industry of independent retailers.

No doubt you expect me to pick up my "occupy Wall Street" sign and rant away. You would be mistaken. If a local business cannot compete with Amazon on a level playing field, then it deserves to fail. But notice I said level playing field. Amazon until recently had a 5 to 10% price advantage right off the top because they used to not have to pay sales tax. Now they do. I think that the loss of this is going to have a negative impact on Amazon sales. There are still other ways these corporations cheat. While this is less true for the retailers I mentioned, the gimmicks used by corporations to "legally" move income from the US to lower tax areas are truly epic in scope, i.e. Apple has $200 billion in other countries.

One way corporations have an advantage is that they will approach nearby towns and say to each, we will build in one of your towns, and you will get the advantages of the store, the other town gets nothing. Like Monty Hall of the old game show they say, "Let's make a deal!" The two towns bid down their property taxes to a very low level. The other businesses, that now have to compete with Walmart, might actually see their taxes go up to pay to subsidize the competition. The towns know if they don't deal, the other town will. I would call this blackmail.

In addition the big companies squeeze their suppliers. "If you don't cut the price of your widget, China Widgets will." This cause more angst among the entrepreneurs in the Walmart supply chain. Most Walmart suppliers do not actually make much money from the business with Walmart, but unless they want to cut their sales by 50% they have to go along.

Big companies also can borrow money for 2 or 3 percent. They can get it even cheaper if they keep the loan maturity low. I pay 6%. Credit card as a way to raise capital? Donteventhinkaboutit.

So back to Trump. As a member of the 1% he has made his fortune negotiating with various principalities and powers to get the best deal. To the banker he has said, take your loan and ..... I did not sign the loan personally, so you are stuck, not me. I don't actually think that Trump will help business people, he is in too deep with the 1%. But the perception is that he will, and he will receive a lot of support from this class, but they will all deny it!

Soon I will talk about middle class angst and how that helps Trump.

My Predictions for 2016

In the spirit of the Amazing Kreskin, I offer my predictions for 2016. Or maybe it is in the spirit of the Amazing Criswell.I will do better!

1. Saxo Bank also does predictions and they expect the Russian Ruble to go up 20%. This is related to their prediction that oil prices will go back up and approach $100. This seems goofy to me. I predict that the Ruble will fall from the current 70 to the dollar to 90, a fall of 30%. On my first trip to Russia in 2001 it was 27 to the dollar. The fall in the Ruble is not so much because Russia is weak, but more that the "powers that be" want Russia to be weak. 

2. I will move to Russia. 

3. Oil will go down to $30 but then back up to $45. Russia is planning on $40 oil for the next 5 years. This will be bad for Russia, but not catastrophic because of the weaker Ruble. It will be bad for Saudi Arabia with its fixed exchange rate. Bonus Prediction: The house of Saud will fall within 5 years if low oil prices continue that long. 

4. We just learned that Juliette is alive. (I predicted this to my daughter.) She and Nick will get married in the 2016/2017 season. 

5. Russia's adventure in Syria will not go well, but it won't go badly either. Putin feels he has no choice but to fight in Syria as a large portion of the ISIS fighters are ethnic Chechens from Russia. Russia lost the first Chechen War, but won the second. Putin does not want there to be a third. For an interesting discussion of why Putin is in Syria, click here. 

6. In 2016 we will discover the answer to that age-old question, "Is the Pope Catholic?" The answer is no.

7. There will be a settlement in Ukraine because both the West and Russia want one. The Ukrainians would rather kill each other. 

8. Miley Cyrus will get married. In a ground breaking ceremony, she will marry herself. 

9. The hard money crowd will continue to predict inflation, they will continue to be wrong. The Fed will, as it did on December 16, try to increase interest rates. While the interest rates will technically be higher in that the rate that the Fed will loan money to banks will go up, in reality the strong deflationary pressures will continue and there will be little increase in rates. I doubt the Fed will reduce reserves by the one trillion or so needed to actually increase interest rates. The dollar will continue to be strong.

10. In a close election Cruz will lose to Clinton. Chelsea will be a fine President.

What's On Your Menu Today?

Is it this?

Charlie Chan

Here is another free movie.