The Forever War: Four Trillion and Counting

In George Orwell's 1984, the world is divided into three countries which constantly war with each other. The countries will randomly switch alliances: Eurasia will end its alliance with Oceania, and become an ally of Eastasia. Of course, Oceania was never an ally of Eurasia, this is a lie of saboteurs. The point is that the war never ends because War empowers the rulers to deceive the ruled. It seems that we are in the same situation today. Of course we are not to mention the fact that America used to be an ally of Iraq, oh no. Do not forget that, "War Is Peace." 

It is not clear how much longer we can afford the warfare state-not and maintain the welfare state. Bloomberg gives us an estimate of the cost of just one of these wars, the war in Iraq:  

The nine-year-old Iraq war came to an official end on Thursday, but paying for it will continue for decades until U.S. taxpayers have shelled out an estimated $4 trillion.

This was not what we were told:

Near the start of the war, the U.S. Defense Department estimated it would cost $50 billion to $80 billion. White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey was dismissed in 2002 after suggesting the price of invading and occupying Iraq could reach $200 billion.

“The direct costs for the war were about $800 billion, but the indirect costs, the costs you can’t easily see, that payoff will outlast you and me,” said Lawrence Korb, a senior fellow at American Progress, a Washington, D.C. think tank, and a former assistant secretary of defense under Ronald Reagan. 

What are these costs? 

Those costs include interest payments on the billions borrowed to fund the war; the cost of maintaining military bases in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain to defend Iraq or reoccupy the country if the Baghdad government unravels; and the expense of using private security contractors to protect U.S. property in the country and to train Iraqi forces.

Caring for veterans, more than 2 million of them, could alone reach $1 trillion, according to Paul Rieckhoff, executive director of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, in Congressional testimony in July.

Big SisterHow much will this cost? Ultimately we have no idea. My guess is that it will be less because we will not keep our commitment to the Veterans. I am not saying this is a good thing, but I am saying we do not have the money. 

Was the War worth 4 trillion and the eventual bankruptcy of the country? Was it worth 2 Trillion? Was it worth 1 trillion? Was it worth one dollar?

The reason I ask if it is worth one dollar is that what we do in the Middle East just makes things worse. The US government supported the "Arab Spring." In Egypt the result was an election where the Moslem Brotherhood with the even more conservative parties got 60% of the vote. In Libya the rebels fly the Al Qaida flag. What will happen if the US Government replaces the current Syrian government? We can assume that it will not be good. 

The CIA and the English MI-6 replaced the democratically elected government in Iran with the Shah. The people hated him. Now we have a different government in Iran. How is that working out for the US? 

Sunday I posted a video that supported Ron Paul. I suppose I endorsed him by my use of the video. Tomorrow I will talk about his foreign policy, which is not isolationism, but non-interventionism. But ultimately the arguments either way are moot. As I have been pointing out recently, we do not have the money. 

Do not forget that "War is Peace," "Freedom is Slavery," and "Ignorance is Strength." 

2+2=5: Let's Cut Spending

So if one cuts the budget by about 42% across the board the budget would be balanced. When we include the fact that we cannot cut interest on the debt, we must cut the budget by about 50% if we want to balance it. So that means that if a person right now is getting a Social Security check of $1,000 it becomes $500. If your doctor bill is $500 a month, paid by Medicare, you now have a bill of $250. This means that we will cut Medicaid by 50%. Cut our troop strength by 50%.  50% of FBI agents will be fired. Unemployment benefits will be slashed. This is what people are asking when they ask for a balanced budget.  

So let’s exempt the Military. That is 25% of the budget. So the rest of the budget will be cut then by 75%. Let's look at my previous examples. So that $1,000 Social Security check becomes $250. You heath care expenses are now $375 a month. 75% of FBI agents will be fired.  

So let’s exempt the Military, Social Security, and medical expenses of Government. That means we will need to cut the rest of Government by 200%. You do the math. When Republican Budget Guru Ryan says that current retirees will not be affected, he is lying. 

I ran across this interesting tidbit as I researched George Orwell's 1984 for tomorrow's post. 

The statement "2+2=5,” used to torment Winston Smith during his interrogation, was a Communist party slogan from the second five-year plan, which encouraged fulfillment of the five-year plan in four years. The slogan was seen in electric lights on Moscow house-fronts, billboards, etc.  

The Communist party seized the absurdity and made it into a slogan. I suggest the Republicans do the same. Here is my proposed slogan: "The Democrats think 2+2=6. We Republicans think 2+2=5. We are the better party." I am not comforted.  

While I have personal preferences as to who the next president will be, it may not really matter. A Republican president will raise taxes; a Democratic president will cut spending. Neither of the two major parties is willing to deal with the crisis. In fact one of my fondest hopes is that the candidates are liars. I hope the candidates understand the coming troubles and are saying what they need to say to get elected. My hope is in the dishonesty of the politician. 

Our difficulties which I have been outlining are very severe. We need to cut the budget in ways no one wants. We need to raise taxes, a lot—on everyone.  I wish we had some magical pixie dust to spread over the budget and make everything better. We have no choice. We do not have the money.

Let's Raise Taxes

This picture is making the rounds on Facebook. To balance the budget by raising taxes would require all taxes to go up by 80%. This is not going to happen. The corporate tax rate is already among the highest in the world at 35%. Such a large increase in taxes would mean a tax rate of 65%. The Social Security tax rate is 12.8%. An 80% increase would mean an increase to 23%. The highest marginal tax rate for the income tax is 35%. Such a large increase in taxes would increase the tax rate on that income bracket to 65%.  

What about a Value Added Tax (VAT)?

Canada, for example, gives up about a third of potential revenue by excusing food, drugs, and transportation from the [value added] tax. Even if the United States did the same, a 10 percent tax rate could raise $500 billion a year, according to Eric Toder, an analyst at the Tax Policy Center.  

So in order to raise 1.6 trillion a year, this would require a value added tax of 30%. This would mean that all prices would go up about 35%. Does anyone think this is going to happen? 

I have seen a few examples on the talking head programs of a "rich" person asking for higher taxes. A few percentage points is how one person put it. The ones suggesting this do not understand just how dire things are. When I see this talking point, I laugh. The increase, if it is to solve the problem, must be much, much larger. 

The tax increase that Obama is talking about is minimal. If the Republicans were smart—they are not called the stupid party for nothing—they would embrace the rather modest tax increase Obama is suggesting—maybe a bit more. And then cut the budget. This would destroy all Obama's talking points. 

While I support a rather large tax increase with the expiration of the Bush era tax cuts, this will only pay for about 20% of the next 10 years’ deficit.  

Tomorrow I will talk about budget cuts. 

Would You, Could You, Vote For Paul?

Pray For Our Troops?

I realize that this will not be well recieved. 

"O Lord our Father, our young patriots, idols of our hearts, go forth to battle — be Thou near them! With them, in spirit, we also go forth from the sweet peace of our beloved firesides to smite the foe. O Lord our God, help us to tear their soldiers to bloody shreds with our shells; help us to cover their smiling fields with the pale forms of their patriot dead; help us to drown the thunder of the guns with the shrieks of their wounded, writhing in pain; help us to lay waste their humble homes with a hurricane of fire; help us to wring the hearts of their unoffending widows with unavailing grief; help us to turn them out roofless with their little children to wander unfriended the wastes of their desolated land in rags and hunger and thirst, sports of the sun flames of summer and the icy winds of winter, broken in spirit, worn with travail, imploring Thee for the refuge of the grave and denied it — for our sakes who adore Thee, Lord, blast their hopes, blight their lives, protract their bitter pilgrimage, make heavy their steps, water their way with their tears, stain the white snow with the blood of their wounded feet! We ask it, in the spirit of love, of Him Who is the Source of Love, and Who is ever-faithful refuge and friend of all that are sore beset and seek His aid with humble and contrite hearts. Amen."

-- From Mark Twain's War Prayer.

This was written during the propaganda mania surrounding the Spanish American War. I have prayed for our troops, but not this prayer. Jesus in the Bible passage I will quote next is not advocating pacifism; there is such a thing as a just war. It is just difficult to reconcile the Bible with the modern American War Machine. At the very least, Jesus is here advocating avoiding conflict. Can we listen to what He is saying? As the book of Revelation tells us: "Do we have ears to hear what the Spirit is saying to the church?" 

³⁸ “You have heard that it was said, ‘Eye for eye, and tooth for tooth.’ ³⁹ But I tell you, do not resist an evil person. If anyone slaps you on the right cheek, turn to them the other cheek also. ⁴⁰ And if anyone wants to sue you and take your shirt, hand over your coat as well. ⁴¹ If anyone forces you to go one mile, go with them two miles. ⁴² Give to the one who asks you, and do not turn away from the one who wants to borrow from you.

Love for Enemies

    ⁴³ “You have heard that it was said, ‘Love your neighbor^[i] and hate your enemy.’ ⁴⁴ But I tell you, love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you, ⁴⁵ that you may be children of your Father in heaven. He causes his sun to rise on the evil and the good, and sends rain on the righteous and the unrighteous.⁴⁶ If you love those who love you, what reward will you get? Are not even the tax collectors doing that? ⁴⁷ And if you greet only your own people, what are you doing more than others? Do not even pagans do that? ⁴⁸ Be perfect, therefore, as your heavenly Father is perfect.