Why Trump Will Lose: The Media

If Trump has an unsuccessful presidency, the media will have a lot to do with it. Here is how one media organization plans to cover the Trump Presidency:

The first 12 days of the Trump presidency (yes, that’s all it’s been!) have been memorable for all – and especially challenging for us in the news business. It’s not every day that a U.S. president calls journalists “among the most dishonest human beings on earth” or that his chief strategist dubs the media “the opposition party.” It’s hardly surprising that the air is thick with questions and theories about how to cover the new Administration.

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To state the obvious, Reuters is a global news organization that reports independently and fairly in more than 100 countries, including many in which the media is unwelcome and frequently under attack. I am perpetually proud of our work in places such as Turkey, the Philippines, Egypt, Iraq, Yemen, Thailand, China, Zimbabwe, and Russia, nations in which we sometimes encounter some combination of censorship, legal prosecution, visa denials, and even physical threats to our journalists.  

In other words, Trump will oversee some sort of bizarre censorship of the press. Is there any evidence of this? 

No, not really. Here is the extent of Trump’s anti-media plans: 

The White House has refused to send its spokespeople or surrogates onto CNN shows, effectively freezing out the network from on-air administration voices.

“We’re sending surrogates to places where we think it makes sense to promote our agenda,” said a White House official, acknowledging that CNN is not such a place, but adding that the ban is not permanent.The White House has refused to send its spokespeople or surrogates onto CNN shows, effectively freezing out the network from on-air administration voices. 

That is it. They are still allowing CNN to ask questions at White House Press conferences. 

Why then is this an example of losing? 

I do not see how Trump can go against the entire media. That includes Fox which is not in favor of Trump except for Hannity. But clearly CNN did support Clinton, there was no real attempt to hide it. But pro-Trump people will still be selected as this gives a pretense of objectivity. But instead of Trump selecting the best surrogates, CNN will select the worst surrogates. This is not a good move on Trump’s part. There are still a number of voters who are influenced by media’s last gasps before it dies. Of course Trump’s people could be saying this, but actually not do it. In corporate media, Trump will have an uphill battle. 

Why Trump Will Win: Out Thinking His Opposition

If Trump can stay one step ahead, he will win the political game. Here is an example of him doing just that. 

A document from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) indicates that Donald Trump took steps last week to outmaneuver nonprofit organizations, leaving them unable to officially campaign against him over the next few years of his Presidency.

Filed on January 20th, 2017, the letter states that, while not an official announcement for reelection, Donald Trump has filed an FEC Form 2 in order to “ensure compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.” This is an unprecedented, although legal, move for the President to make. Barack Obama did not file for his 2012 re-election bid until April 2011. Having filed (even if not formally announcing a bid) as a candidate, Trump would be able to coordinate with PACs and other similar organizations.

More importantly, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organizations would no longer be able to engage in “political speech” which could theoretically affect the results of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election without running the risk of losing their nonprofit status. The move effectively bars interest groups from creating nonprofits which they could funnel money into for the purposes of opposing Trump’s initiatives. This will likely create chaos for political opponents of Trump such as George Soros, who has sunk significant amounts of money into various nonprofit groups with the intent of opposing Trump’s government. How 501(c)(3) organizations will comply with the FEC’s regulations when participating an actions which qualify as political speech remains to be seen.

Where Is the US and Russia Heading?

I have commented in the past that Russia was becoming more free, and the US was becoming less free. I doubt Trump will effect this much. 

I thought that you might be interested in this from a Russian perspective. You will need to turn on CC if you have not already as it is in Russian. 

Why Trump Will Fail: Immigration

While Trump’s position on immigration is a majority position, that could change suddenly if Trump is not careful. It all depends on what he eventually negotiates.

Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert had this comment: 

Trump’s temporary immigration ban set a mental anchor in your brain that is frankly shocking. It will make his eventual permanent immigration plan (”extreme vetting”) look tame by comparison. The Persuasion Filter says that’s his strategy. Because that’s ALWAYS his strategy. He acts the same way every time. He wrote a book about it. He talks about it publicly. Then he does it right in front of us, over and over. And no matter how many times he does it, half the country still thinks the opening offer is the real one.

The entire article is worth reading.  

There are three areas that Trump needs to negotiate to make this area of his presidency a success. The first is the “Dreamers.” Those are the children of immigrants that came here as young children. It does not seem reasonable to deport them. As I am doing in all these posts, I am not commenting on the morality of it, only the persuasion and tactical political aspects. Because of this, even though Trump may care less about these people, it seems likely he will strike some sort of deal.

Another aspect is that tech companies rely on special visas to allow tech workers to immigrate relatively easily. Of course this results in America workers not being hired. The claim is that these workers are not available. Of course they aren’t. As long as the big tech companies continue to import thousands of these workers, no one is going to train for a job that will be taken by a cheaper outsider. It seems to me that Trump will cut these visa programs as the tech industry made a clear choice for Clinton, and these kind of choices mean the tech industry has no friends in a Trump administration. This might create problems for the tech industry, and this may result in lackluster growth. At least that will be the claim made by the tech giants no matter what. This might be a losing proposition, but it could still win for Trump if it is perceived as a victory. Perception is all that matters. 

The final aspect of the illegal immigration trouble is that in certain industries the reliance on these illegal workers is very high. If suddenly no workers are available at harvest time, this would result in high losses for farmers and high prices for consumers. This is unacceptable. If Trump negotiates some sort of Bracero program like they had in the 60’s the net result would be positive for everyone. I doubt that college students will take the summer to pick vegetables. 

Will Trump’s immigration plan succeed? 

Right now he has no plan so no one can say. If Trump is perceived to be fair to the Dreamers; fair to American tech workers; fair to farmers and seasonal workers, then yes he will succeed. 

But will he? I think not, but Trump prides himself on his negotiation skills so who knows? 

Why Trump Will Succeed: Immigration

Trump is using the majority opinion on Illegal Immigration in the states Republicans are likely to win to forge a new electoral coalition. As I said in an earlier blog post, it does not matter what the morality might be. It does not matter what the economics might be, it only matters how people feel about Immigration. (Note that I left out the word illegal in the last sentence.)

Any immigration will tend to reduce wages, it is a simple matter of supply and demand. While to some extent immigration creates its own demand, this factor will not be enough. Unskilled wages, and eventually all wages will go up, if immigration declines. This is especially true with illegal immigration. Wages have been declining for decades. This has not escaped the attention of working class Americans. 

Trump’s opinion on immigration is actually quite in step with the majority opinion in “red” states, the states Republicans need for a successful election. Calling these views xenophobic will actually help Trump as those who hold these views know that it is a lie, and this will drive them to be even more anti-immigration. 

Here is an example from that well know xenophobe, Bill Clinton. The transcription is a little rough, but in general it is correct. You can also listen to it on YouTube.

"We are a nation of immigrants …  but we are a nation of laws"  "Our nation is rightly disturbed by the large numbers of illegal aliens entering our country...  Illegal immigrants take jobs from citizens or legal immigrants,they impose burdens on our taxpayers... That is why we are doubling the number of border guards, deporting more illegal immigrants than ever before, cracking down on illegal hiring, barring benefits to illegal aliens, and we will do more to speed the deportation of illegal immigrants arrest for crimes... It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws that has occurred in the last few years.. and we must do more to stop it." [Standing Ovation]