Recency Bias

One reason that people cannot see the very negative effects of our current economy is the Recency Effect or Bias, although in this case it is more of a fallacy. Free Dictionary defines it this way

the phenomenon that when people are asked to recall in any order the items on a list, those that come at the end of the list are more likely to be recalled than the others

So when the Dow Jones reaches an all-time high this is given more recall, and also given more importance, than the recent difficulties. It is also forgotten—even if remembered, it is forgotten in a de facto way—that it took 12 years to get this high. And you only broke even, in real terms, forgetting that there was inflation in the last ten years. Of course there were also dividends to help balance inflation, but in general, assuming that you believe the stated inflation rate, if one had invested 12 years ago in the stock market, you broke even over ten years. 

Yet the current stock price is being hyped like it was the Second Coming. This is not to say that those that bought stocks after the crash of 2008 did badly, they did not. But most people cannot market time their purchases. 

Recency bias looks at the near present and expects it to continue. Thus the 2000 Tech Bubble is not foreseen because recently tech stocks did so well. The 2007 real estate bubble is not seen because recently real estate had done well up to the time it didn't. Nor will whatever bubble we are in now be easily seen. Looking backward is like the little sign on your rear view mirror, "objects may appear closer than they are." We think we see clearly but we do not. 

This principle can be applied in many ways. 

Economically, the recent past is not always a good indicator of the future. The fact that things appear to be improving does not mean that this will continue. Personally I think it will for the near term, but there is really no way to know. 

The Bible even talks about the recency bias. 2 Peter 3 tells us. 

^3-4 First off, you need to know that in the last days, mockers are going to have a heyday. Reducing everything to the level of their puny feelings, they’ll mock, “So what’s happened to the promise of his Coming? Our ancestors are dead and buried, and everything’s going on just as it has from the first day of creation. Nothing’s changed.”

Yes, the good times will continue, no need to worry. Stocks will continue to rise. Unemployment will continue to decline. No need to worry. But as the old Henny Youngman joke went, "The economy is so bad that men are having to leave their girlfriends, and go back to their wives." No need to worry. 

An economic Judgment Day is coming. 

A political Judgment Day for America is coming. 

We still have time to get our own personal houses in order. Do not waste whatever time remains. On a religious level God is merciful, giving us time to change.  

^8-9 Don’t overlook the obvious here, friends. With God, one day is as good as a thousand years, a thousand years as a day. God isn’t late with his promise as some measure lateness. He is restraining himself on account of you, holding back the End because he doesn’t want anyone lost. He’s giving everyone space and time to change.

¹⁰ But when the Day of God’s Judgment does come, it will be unannounced, like a thief. The sky will collapse with a thunderous bang, everything disintegrating in a huge conflagration, earth and all its works exposed to the scrutiny of Judgment.

In the metaphor I am drawing here, we still have time to repent, and spend no more. 

There is another bias that we need to be weary of. I call it the Apocalyptic Bias, and I will talk about that tomorrow. 

There Is No We in US

Lulu was right to be skeptical about Willy's new found community. We humans are herd animals for the most part. If we cannot form an appropriate herd, we will invent one. Thus we invent government as an artificial community. 

When God brought His people to the Promised Land, no national government was established.  There were still institutions that we might recognize as government administrated by the Levites, but no king, no standing army, and no taxes! 

But Israel became afraid and wanted a king like everyone else. In Samuel 8 The Message tells us what God predicted would be the result of this desire. 

^10-18 So Samuel told them, delivered God’s warning to the people who were asking him to give them a king. He said, “This is the way the kind of king you’re talking about operates. He’ll take your sons and make soldiers of them—chariotry, cavalry, infantry, regimented in battalions and squadrons. He’ll put some to forced labor on his farms, plowing and harvesting, and others to making either weapons of war or chariots in which he can ride in luxury. He’ll put your daughters to work as beauticians and waitresses and cooks. He’ll conscript your best fields, vineyards, and orchards and hand them over to his special friends. He’ll tax your harvests and vintage to support his extensive bureaucracy. Your prize workers and best animals he’ll take for his own use. He’ll lay a tax on your flocks and you’ll end up no better than slaves. The day will come when you will cry in desperation because of this king you so much want for yourselves. But don’t expect God to answer.”

^19-20 But the people wouldn’t listen to Samuel. “No!” they said. “We will have a king to rule us! Then we’ll be just like all the other nations. Our king will rule us and lead us and fight our battles.”

Since humans feel safer in groups this was understandable. But in the analogy I am using it would be like all the sheep getting together and appointing the local wolves to protect them from foreign wolves. Yes, every April 15 every sheep gets sheared. Yes, sheep mysteriously disappear. But we are safe! 

So while there is no way to avoid the shearing this April 15, I suggest a low profile to avoid being a target otherwise. The purpose of "our" government is not the best interests of the people. It is the best interests of the wolves that matters. Hiring new wolves will not help. 

Remember there is no WE in US. 

Depressing, Isn’t It?

Looking at the world it is easy to get depressed. Everything is tinged with corruption. Food, money, bodies, minds, news, and the whole population are all over-processed. 

Look at the Cyprus bank crisis: money is over-processed. Look in the mirror: are you over-processed? Are you watching the Kardashians? Benny Hinn? Fox News?  Is your mind over-processed? 

The system, The Man, "the powers that be," or Babylon as the Bible calls it, thinks itself immortal and immune. Revelation 18:7 tells us what she thinks:

In her heart she boasts,
    ‘I sit enthroned as queen.
I am not a widow;
    I will never mourn.’

But we as Christians know the ultimate outcome as the next verse in Revelation tells us:

⁸ Therefore in one day her plagues will overtake her:
     death, mourning and famine.
She will be consumed by fire,
    for mighty is the Lord God who judges her.

If we are in Babylon we will suffer along with it. Verse 4 tells us:

“‘Come out of her, my people,’
    so that you will not share in her sins,
    so that you will not receive any of her plagues;
⁵ for her sins are piled up to heaven,
    and God has remembered her crimes.

My main purpose of this blog is to understand that we cannot avoid being in Babylon, but we can avoid being of Babylon. Babylon is extremely intrusive. To paraphrase the radio cartoon character Chickenman "It's everywhere. It's everywhere." One of my proudest blogging moments was a comment by fellow blogger Eric Anderson at Universe of Lies. Commenting on a post about the Agricultural Industrial Complex he said, "Only Dennis would see Babylon in a chicken sandwich—and he is right." 

Yes, even food is over-processed, and it is depressing that there is not a whole lot that can be done about it. Yes, there are a few things you can do. Cook your own food. Know your food. Grow your food. Eat with thinking. It is depressing because most people will not bother. I have lost over 30 pounds mostly by just writing down what I eat in an e-journal called MyFitnessPal and thinking about my food choices. Do the best you can. 

Do you think I am exaggerating the problem? If so watch this documentary, Food Inc. If anything, I have not talked about it enough. But be warned, unless you are doing a lot more about the food you eat than most Americans, you will be depressed too.

Are You Ready?

I have been asking a question a lot lately. Are you Ready? Are you ready for the financial crisis? I thought I would ask the same question musically. 

Everybody Poops Part 2

I have been thinking about the theological implications of the Bad Lip Reading song I shared on Sunday, "Everybody Poops." So Jesus was human according to what I see in the Bible. Is he still only human? Has Jesus now become by his resurrection and accession now just a submerged part of God? Is he God at all? 

After his resurrection he appeared to his disciples, but one was not there, and had trouble believing. Here is what was said in John 20:

24-25 But Thomas, sometimes called the Twin, one of the Twelve, was not with them when Jesus came. The other disciples told him, “We saw the Master.”

But he said, “Unless I see the nail holes in his hands, put my finger in the nail holes, and stick my hand in his side, I won’t believe it.”

26 Eight days later, his disciples were again in the room. This time Thomas was with them. Jesus came through the locked doors, stood among them, and said, “Peace to you.”

27 Then he focused his attention on Thomas. “Take your finger and examine my hands. Take your hand and stick it in my side. Don’t be unbelieving. Believe.”

28 Thomas said, “My Master! My God!”

29 Jesus said, “So, you believe because you’ve seen with your own eyes. Even better blessings are in store for those who believe without seeing.

A common explanation by those who do not think that Jesus is divine is that Thomas was cursing here. For me that just does not pass the smell test. 

I remember a letter to the editor by an advocate of Jesus not being God sent to a newspaper of my religious tradition. He wrote that it was only a few times that the Bible called Jesus God, "maybe two or three" he wrote. Yes, I agree it is not done often, although I would place the number much higher. But the Bible does call Jesus God, even a scholar that advocates the “Jesus was only human” concept admits it. I have found it amusing that those that want to make Jesus human will quote this scholar, not realizing that he advocates that the Bible, at least part of it, teaches that Jesus is God.  

First a little grammar to help us think about how Jesus is God. In English and Greek the presence of the definite article "the" gives us clues about the nature of the noun that the article modifies. If I say, "I saw the red and the green car," how many cars are there? There are two. But if I say, "I saw the red and green car," how many cars are there? There is one. This is called the Granville Sharp rule, for those interested in grammar minutia. (I will leave for another time the discussion of the bad taste of the car owner with such a two-toned monstrosity.) 

This distinction can help us understand some aspects of Jesus' divinity. First is Jesus and the Father one entity? 

⁷ To all that be in Rome, beloved of God, called to be saints: Grace to you and peace from God our Father, and the Lord Jesus Christ.  Romans 1:7

 Grace be with you, mercy, and peace, from God the Father, and from the Lord Jesus Christ, the Son of the Father, in truth and love. 2 John 1:3

No, they are separate entities. In the resurrection Jesus did not give up his uniqueness. 

With that in mind also note this:

Looking for that blessed hope, and the glorious appearing of the great God and our Saviour Jesus Christ Titus 2:13

Note that there is no definite article in front of savior. So whoever Paul is referencing is both God and Jesus Christ. 

So Jesus is God. 

What does this mean exactly? 

I have no idea. I see no reason to try to turn God into some sort of trinitarian pretzel trying to fit our preconceived notions about God. It is far better just to say that Jesus is God, yet separate from the Father, and let it remain undefined in its minutia. I think trying to work out all the details is a giant waste of time. I think you would be better off watching sports, it would be more productive. (As you will see this Saturday, I think modern sports are a part of Babylon, so I do not praise sports watching at all.) 

So my conclusion is that Jesus while on the earth was human, just like that other son of God, Adam. After his resurrection he was God, yet separate from the Father. But what was he, or was he, before his conception? That we will talk about next time.