Brought to You by the Apocalypse Shopping NetworkSo, why don't I expect a collapse? Let's quote future First Man Bill Clinton: "It depends on what the definition of 'is' is." If by collapse you mean the EBT cards not working, armed gangs breaking into hardware stores, or the zombie apocalypse, then no, there will be no collapse.
But if by collapse you mean an event similar to the Great Depression, then that might be in our future. Personally I expect something worse than 2008, but not as bad as the Great Depression. But then among the hard money types I pass for an optimist, or as I like to call myself guardedly pessimistic.We talk about the "fall" of the Roman Empire as if it was a single event. But the fall took centuries. In the same way, as tough as I fear the economy will be, the next few decades will still be American decades. Times will be tough everywhere--I am not sure where you might go to avoid it. The power of the state is immense, and all available tools will be used. This is not a happy thought, depending on the tools used.
Trivial Pursuit Question: Who Am I? But a collapse is not impossible, and the crisis could happen quicker than I think. (Or for that matter, later.) The crisis in the Ukraine might be a tipping point. That seems unlikely, but who would have thought an assassination of an Archduke would have caused WW I? The Great War seems the closest parallel to today.
War could have already broken out by the time this post publishes. It does not look good this Sunday as I view the burnt corpses of protestors. I doubt the absurd claim of the Ukrainian regime that they set fire to themselves will pass the smell test, as there is video that contradicts this—but the sheep are not too bright, and I am always amazed by what people believe. I am still guardedly pessimistic as I do not think Putin actually wants East Ukraine—way too expensive to bring that region up to Russian infrastructure standards. But if the murders continue, then he may feel he has no option.
But in any event, no I do not think we will have a collapse, just hard times.