“I wonder if the Emperor Honorius watching the Visigoths coming over the seventh hill could truly realize that the Roman Empire was about to fall. This is really just another page of history, isn't it? Will this be the end of our civilization? Turn the page.” Captain Jean-Luc Picard, “The Best of Both Worlds”

When one has training or knowledge of history, they look to the long term. I have little doubt that the US is headed for its own Visigothic episode. What my least favorite Captain was referring to was the battle that is often acknowledged as the end of the Roman Empire.

The usual date of 476 for the end of the Empire is when the Western Emperor abdicated, some sixty years after Rome was sacked by the Visigoths. Both dates have some validity. The process took over 60 years. You could even argue it took centuries.

How and why did Rome fall?

There were lots of reasons. Roman money had become debased--less and less gold. A whole underclass evolved that fled the farms because of taxation. Games were provided as a distraction to the impoverished masses. In earlier years free bread was provided from the taxes placed on Egypt. Egypt was long gone. The military of course got bigger, so big that the military could not be maintained.

The US has for over 60 years been in decline, since Johnson decided we could have guns and butter in almost unlimited quantities. Right now there are 1.1 people on various forms of public assistance for every full-time worker--just as in ancient Rome. The US populace seems mired in popular entertainment, like the upcoming Superbowl. Need I point out that it does not matter who wins? America divides itself into artificial groups to root for sports teams, just as in ancient Rome the reds and the blues in the games were in artificial conflict. Just as in Rome, the military is a huge expense. But even if the US military was cut 100%, the budget still would not be balanced. The Federal Reserve is printing about a trillion dollars a year, just like ancient Rome did by reducing the gold in their coinage.

Where is the US headed? How long does the US have? Do the citizens of the US see it coming? No, as long as they have their free phones, their MTV, and the occasional short victorious war.

When will the Visigoths come? Are the barbarians at the gates?