Why I Doubt I Will Vote for Romney

The problem with what Romney is saying is that the government has the authority to decide, without review, who is a "traitor" and who is not. Basically Romney says, "Trust me." While I do think it unlikely that non-Moslems will be charged, so "we" are safe, there is absolutely nothing in the bill to restrict it to anyone. If the government decides you are a terrorist, you are a terrorist. 

I also find it amusing that Romney is reading out of a Democratic play book on the issue of defense spending. Obama is actually not proposing to cut defense. He is proposing to cut the rate of increase in defense spending. When Democrats called reductions in the rate of increase of social spending as "cuts," the Republicans complained it was unfair. Now, suddenly, it is fair. 

My big hope is that Romney is as big a liar as he appears to be and the rhetoric of the campaign will be ignored if he is elected. It is better to raise taxes a little bit, and cut spending a lot, than it is to do nothing. When the crisis hits the government will either print money or make draconian cuts everywhere. I do not understand why everyone can not see this. Probably their "template," their world view, will not let them. 

Guardedly Pessimistic or "The Brain That Wouldn't Die"

More and more people are starting to realize the dire situation our government is in. The reason I am guardedly pessimistic is that I still hope that some changes will be made in our government. I find it difficult to believe that the government will not take some action. But of course there is one of my favorite aphorisms- Never Underestimate the Power of Stupidity. Maybe our government's fiscal policy is like that old movie, "The Brain That Wouldn't Die." 

There are a few people like me who have been predicting this for some time. Personally in order to avoid being dependent on Social Security, I took steps. Many of my contemporaries did not. A lot of my steps did not go as well as I had hoped, but I am working on that. 

Ron Paul was one who understood. He made this comment in April 24, 2002:

“Federal Reserve policy will continue at an expanding rate with massive credit expansion, which will make the dollar crisis worse. Gold will be seen as an alternative to paper money as it returns to its historic role as money. Erosion of civil liberties here at home will continue as our government responds to political fear in dealing with the terrorist threat by making generous use of the powers obtained with the Patriot Act. … The Congress and the president will shift radically, expanding the size and scope of the federal government. This will satisfy both the liberals and the conservatives. Military and police power will grow, satisfying the conservatives. The welfare state, both domestic and international, will expand, satisfying the liberals. Both sides will endorse military interventionism overseas. … During the next decade, the American people will become poorer and less free while they become more dependent upon the government for economic security. … I have no timetable for these predictions, but keep them around and look at them in five to ten years. I hope and pray that I am wrong on all accounts.”

Ron Paul was right of course. 

Doug Casey Research wrote an interesting article last week about government spending entitled "The US Government is Bankrupt." Although I recommend you read the whole thing, if you are so inclined, here is the most important part that explains why the crisis is happening:

As with Social Security, the demographics for Medicare are disastrous. Again, 12% of the population now is over 65, but by 2030 it will be 23%, so, everything being equal, spending is going vastly higher. But it's much worse than that because of skyrocketing medical costs. Note that there is no necessity, in a free market, for medical costs to rise. Rather, they should be expected to fall, like the cost of most technology.

I still do not think that the US Government is bankrupt because I expect they will repudiate Medicare. Are you ready for this? If not I suggest two things you can do right now. Cut your expenses to the bone and save, save, save. Exercise and lose weight. I am starting to do both. Are you ready? 

In The Long Run We Are All Dead

It has been pointed out that the example of Japan tells us that everything is hunky-dory. This is Krugman's opinion. As I pointed out two weeks ago, this is not entirely wrong. 

However, it is clear that because of the power of compound interest, our current path is not sustainable. We may have a few years to make the needed changes, but what we are doing now cannot continue. It will take us ten years or so to reach the point Japan is at now. 

How is Japan doing? Uniquely, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is being honest with his people:

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said containing Japan’s public debt load, the world’s largest, is critical after Standard & Poor’s downgraded credit ratings on France, Austria and seven other European nations.

Europe’s fiscal situation “isn’t a house burning on the other side of the river,” Noda said on TV Tokyo Holdings Corp.’s program on Jan. 14. “We must have a great sense of crisis.” 

It is as difficult to cut spending in Japan as it is in America, so Noda is proposing to double the national sales tax to ten percent. 

Noda reshuffled his cabinet last week, aiming to win support for doubling Japan’s 5 percent national sales tax by 2015 to trim the soaring debt. S&P said in November Noda’s administration hadn’t made progress in tackling the public debt burden, an indication the credit-rating company may be preparing to lower the nation’s sovereign grade.

Why is Noda concerned? It is the exact same reason I am. If interest rates increase, a very bad deficit becomes a catastrophe. 

Japan’s government, which has enjoyed borrowing costs that are around 1 percent, wouldn’t be able to manage its finances if bond yields surged to 3 percent, Noda said last week. The country risks seeing a spike in government bond yields unless it controls a debt load set to approach 230 percent of gross domestic product in 2013, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Nov. 28.

Even with this massive tax increase, things could get very bad in Japan. 

“The proposed increase in the consumption tax to 10% would not be enough to put the public finances on a sustainable track,” David Rea, a Japan economist at Capital Economics Ltd. In London, wrote in a report last week. “A larger increase is needed, and soon, but is highly unlikely without a specific mandate from the electorate as support from the opposition and even some elements of the ruling party is non-existent.”

This is the problem everywhere. There are a certain number of politicians who refuse to see reality. In America they are called Republicans and Democrats. I suppose Republicans could take comfort in that the fact that the Republican car is racing toward the cliff at 40 mph while the Democratic car is racing at 60 mph, but I am not comforted. Yes, as Lord Keynes said, in the long run we are all dead. This is not an encouraging fact as we live in Keynes' long run.

Star Wars Cello

You Reap What You Sow: Going All Old Testamenty

Yesturday I quoted the proverb from Galatians, "What a man sows, that he will also reap." I saw this same quote on a political blog I look at daily. The writer said something like this: "I do not want to go all Old Testamenty on you, but a man sows what he reaps." I chuckled when I read this, as many of you will recognize, Galatians is in the New Testament. 

This is an example of what I call templates. This is a false template. The Old Testament is not filled with wrath, and the New Testament is not filled with love. Both the Old and New Testaments are filled with wrath and love. 

We have, for example, my daughter Stacy's memory verse for last week from Micah 6:

⁸ He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. 
   And what does the LORD require of you? 
To act justly and to love mercy 
   and to walk humbly with your God.

And we have this from the New Testament:

²⁷ “Woe to you, teachers of the law and Pharisees, you hypocrites! You are like whitewashed tombs, which look beautiful on the outside but on the inside are full of the bones of the dead and everything unclean. ²⁸ In the same way, on the outside you appear to people as righteous but on the inside you are full of hypocrisy and wickedness.

Jesus was not too happy with his religious contemporaries. 

Both the Old and the New Testament are useful and usable for us today, it just must be done properly. 

I discussed this in the past in my blog post "Who'd a Thunk it"

So is Jesus the effeminate man pictured in many popular Sunday School pictures? Here is how John describes Him in Revelation 1: 

¹² I turned around to see the voice that was speaking to me. And when I turned I saw seven golden lampstands, ¹³ and among the lampstands was someone like a son of man,^[d] dressed in a robe reaching down to his feet and with a golden sash around his chest. ¹⁴ The hair on his head was white like wool, as white as snow, and his eyes were like blazing fire. ¹⁵ His feet were like bronze glowing in a furnace, and his voice was like the sound of rushing waters. ¹⁶ In his right hand he held seven stars, and coming out of his mouth was a sharp, double-edged sword. His face was like the sun shining in all its brilliance.

Yes it is good news that Jesus is returning. But it is not good news for all. Yes He is returning, but He is angry with what we have done. You see, we all reap what we sow.